Bitcoin is bouncing. After touching lows near $60,000 last week, the price has recovered to trade around $63,800 and the immediate question facing every trader is whether this move higher is the beginning of something meaningful or simply the market catching its breath before another leg down.
Based on the technical structure developing across multiple timeframes, the evidence points firmly toward the latter.
Where Bitcoin Actually Stands
The broader trend that began in October remains bearish and nothing in the current price action has changed that assessment. What analysts tracking Elliott Wave structure are identifying is a textbook wave two bounce developing within a larger three-wave bear market decline. The first leg down brought Bitcoin from its highs into the February lows.
A recovery followed into May. Now, with the price having been rejected from the 200-day moving average, the market appears to be working through a second bounce before what could be a more significant third wave decline later in the summer.
The Levels That Define Everything
Two resistance zones define the near-term outlook with clarity. The first and more immediate sits between $64,500 and $66,269. Bitcoin needs to break cleanly above this level to confirm that the wave two bounce has genuine momentum rather than fizzling at the first meaningful overhead supply.
The second and more significant resistance sits between $67,000 and $77,388. This is the upper boundary of the corrective range, and as long as any rally stays below it, the broader bearish structure remains fully intact. A move above $77,000 would force a meaningful reassessment of the entire bearish thesis, but that scenario is not currently the base case.
On the downside, the support zone between $60,200 and $62,240 is the key level to watch. As long as Bitcoin holds above it, the wave two bounce can continue developing toward the $70,700 to $73,400 range, which represents the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone that corrective moves typically target.
A break below $60,200 would mean the wave two has already completed and the more aggressive third wave decline has begun, potentially targeting the $55,500 area as the next significant support.
For now, Bitcoin is bouncing and the bounce may have further to run. But the structure of the market has not changed and the trend remains down until proven otherwise.
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