Bitcoin is entering the FOMC meeting with a unique market structure, diverging sharply from typical pre-event positioning. While BTC price has gained nearly 5% over the past week, derivatives data shows growing skepticism, with funding rates turning negative across major exchanges.
In the last 48 hours, Bitcoin has plunged below $72,400, with a 1.81% drop. Besides, OI-weighted funding dropped from +0.001% to -0.005%, indicating that short positions are increasing even as price trends higher. At the same time, total open interest has declined by 0.65% over the past 24 hours, suggesting that the rally is not driven by leveraged speculation.
Instead, the move appears to be spot-led. Coinbase premium has remained positive for six of the last seven days, pointing to consistent buying pressure from spot markets rather than derivatives.
A Different Setup Compared to Previous FOMC Meetings
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to decline following FOMC events, having dropped after 7 of the last 8 meetings. These moves were often driven by crowded long positioning and elevated leverage, making the market vulnerable to “sell-the-news” reactions.
However, the current setup appears different.
With funding rates negative and derivatives traders positioned defensively, the market is not entering the event with excessive bullish leverage. This reduces the probability of a typical long liquidation cascade.
What the Dot Plot Means for Crypto
The upcoming FOMC meeting could be critical for Bitcoin, as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, shifting focus toward Jerome Powell’s commentary and the updated Dot Plot. The release of the Dot Plot will be closely watched for signals on the path forward amid rising energy-driven inflation.
Key scenarios include:
- Hawkish outcome: Higher yields and a stronger dollar may pressure BTC in the short term
- Neutral/mixed signals: Likely choppy price action
- Dovish tilt: Could support a relief rally across crypto markets
However, the key variable may not be the announcement itself, but how positioning reacts after it.
Here’s What to Watch Next
The current divergence between spot and derivatives markets is notable. If Bitcoin holds its range post-announcement while funding remains negative, short positions may begin to unwind, potentially adding upward pressure. On the other hand, if macro conditions trigger a breakdown, the lack of strong leveraged longs could limit the severity of downside liquidations compared to previous FOMC events.
Overall, Bitcoin is entering the FOMC meeting in a structurally different position. The rally has been driven by spot demand rather than leverage, while derivative traders remain cautious. This divergence suggests that the usual “sell-the-news” pattern may not play out in the same way, making post-announcement positioning and funding behavior critical to watch.
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