The second part of the year has seen a notable surge in the US stock market, while Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market has faced its share of uncertainty and significant corrections.
With the Nasdaq recently surpassing the 26,000 mark, leading analysts are now suggesting that this milestone could be a clear indicator for Bitcoin to finish the year at new highs.
What Historical Patterns Indicate
According to experts at The Bull Theory, the pattern observed with the Nasdaq reaching all-time highs typically suggests a flow of liquidity, an increased risk appetite, and a shift of capital into growth assets. As this phase develops, it often sets the stage for Bitcoin’s next significant movement.
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Data compiled by the analysts supports this assertion. Historically, in the first 30 days following a Nasdaq all-time high, Bitcoin has averaged a gain of approximately 7%. This return tends to grow, reaching about 14% within 60 days and climbing to an average of 25% by the 90-day mark.
This pattern is not merely coincidental; it reflects a capital rotation where liquidity does not disappear but instead shifts from traditional markets into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin.
The current situation appears to follow a similar trajectory. The Nasdaq’s rise to 26,000 indicates a wave of liquidity building beneath the surface. With rate cuts beginning and quantitative tightening coming to an end, global capital is once again seeking yield.
This scenario mirrors the conditions that contributed to Bitcoin’s significant breakouts in previous years, particularly in 2017, 2020, and 2023.
As such, the analysts note that the next four to five months may represent an acceleration phase for Bitcoin, coinciding with a potential pause in equities, which could lead to crypto becoming the primary outlet for liquidity.
Bitcoin Poised For Breakout Similar To 2020-2021 Cycle
Analysts like Ash Crypto also noted on social media that the BTC/NASDAQ weekly chart is revealing a repeating pattern reminiscent of the 2020-2021 cycle, during which Bitcoin significantly outperformed traditional tech stocks. In both cycles, the October to March timeframe has historically prompted major upward movements.
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After a period of consolidation within a rising wedge, the BTC/NASDAQ pair appears poised for another breakout. Should this pattern repeat, Bitcoin may see substantial gains compared to the Nasdaq in the fourth quarter and into early 2026, Ash Crypto noted.
Notably, this sets the stage for a major rally that could see Bitcoin prices surpassing current records of over $126,000. However, the market is still characterized by increased volatility, and there is no clear path ahead for BTC.
The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $113,350 after a 2% correction in Tuesday’s trading session, following an initial surge above $115,000. This puts BTC 6.5% below record highs.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com