Despite being nearly 30% down from its all-time high, Bitcoin has kept investors enthusiastic about the possibility of a rebound.
The asset, trading at $92,231 at the time of this press, sat in a critical zone that continues to fuel the bulls-versus-bears debate.
Traders widely view this level as a tipping point that could either drive a renewed rally toward $100,000 or trigger a pullback into the $80,000 region. On-chain data and sentiment indicators now offer clearer insight into how investors are positioning themselves.
Can the one-year change signal the next rally?
Bitcoin’s [BTC] one-year performance change has historically served as a reliable indicator in identifying the early stages of both bull and bear markets.
At press time, the one-year performance change stood at -4.5%, suggesting that Bitcoin is not fully in bearish territory yet.
This modest decline, however, mirrored one of the rarer scenarios seen in a past cycle, where Bitcoin’s one-year price change briefly turned negative before a strong rally followed. A similar setup emerged ahead of the 2021 bull run.
Source: Alphractal
To put this into perspective, the previous cycle began in March 2020, when Bitcoin bottomed at around $3,782 before rallying to an all-time high of $64,850. That move represented a gain of more than 1,600% within the cycle.
While a similar magnitude of gains is not guaranteed, a shift in the one-year percentage change back into positive territory could give Bitcoin an edge in making a major upward swing toward a new all-time high.
However, if the one-year percentage change fails to turn green, it could mark the start of a deeper downtrend and the early stages of another bear market.
Is the percent change enough to confirm a bear phase?
A sustained negative reading in the yearly percent change will not be the only metric to watch in determining whether Bitcoin is entering a prolonged decline.
Other technical factors will also play a key role.
One of these is Bitcoin’s two-year simple moving average, which currently sits around $84,500.
This level has historically acted as a major indicator of downside risk. Analyst Joao Wedson warned that losing this level significantly increases the probability of capitulation.
Source: Alphractal
An analysis of Bitcoin’s Liquidation Heatmap revealed how liquidity clusters are positioned around this SMA support and signals how the price is likely to react.
At press time, the market showed limited liquidity around the $85,400 region.
However, traders have stacked substantial liquidity both above and below the aforementioned price level. On the upside, liquidity builds from $86,817 up to the $90,000 zone, while on the downside, it concentrates between $81,609 and $81,733.
These zones often act as demand areas, as price tends to trade into them before making a decisive move. If the liquidity between $86,000 and $90,000 acts as a catalyst, Bitcoin could swing higher from this range.
If this region fails to hold, Bitcoin could lose the $84,500 support level and slide toward the $81,000 region, with the risk of further downside.
Sentiment remains bullish
Despite the technical uncertainty, market sentiment remains largely bullish.
Community Sentiment indicators, which allow traders and investors to vote on their price outlook, show strong optimism. Currently, around 80% of 5.9 million voters are backing a bullish scenario for Bitcoin.
While sentiment alone is not enough to confirm a bull market, industry figures are also expressing confidence. Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of Binance, recently posted on X, suggesting that a super cycle could be approaching.
He wrote,
“I could be wrong, but Super Cycle incoming.”
Zhao attributed part of his outlook to recent developments in the United States, including the removal of crypto from certain risk classifications, which he views as a positive signal for the sector.
Although speculative, the prospect of a super cycle could push Bitcoin back toward its all-time high and support the rare historical pattern where a brief negative yearly change precedes a major rally.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin’s one-year percentage change is showing a similar pattern to the setup that kickstarted the multi-month bull run that extended into 2025.
- The two-year support level remains a key zone in determining whether bulls or bears will take control, with some analysts already calling for a potential “super cycle.”