Bitcoin ended the third quarter of 2025 at a record high, fueling the belief among investors that Bitcoin’s price will go up further into the final quarter of the year.
The Bitcoin price closed September about 5% higher at roughly $114,000, defying expectations of seasonal weakness. September has often been a difficult month for Bitcoin, but when it has finished higher, the final quarter has tended to deliver outsized gains.
Data shows that in years such as 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024, positive September closes were followed by fourth-quarter rallies averaging more than 50%.
Seasonal patterns suggest early-quarter strength may be particularly important. Since 2015, October has delivered average gains of 21.8%, while November has added 10.8%, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.
If similar patterns repeat this year, Bitcoin could clear past $150,000 before the end of the year. That is a familiar sentiment in the Bitcoin space and add another leg higher in a year already defined by new all-time highs, and it would come in the wake of the April halving event that cut new supply of the asset in half — a milestone often followed by upward price pressure.
Bitcoin has traded sideways in recent months, but key liquidity indicators suggest a breakout may be near. Global M2 growth, stablecoin supply trends, and gold’s rally — which Bitcoin has closely tracked with a 40-day lag — all point upward.
Happy ‘Up’tober
Bitcoin surged past $118,000 today as the U.S. government officially shut down at midnight after Congress failed to pass a funding bill. While Wall Street tumbled, investors turned to safe-haven assets, sending gold to a record above $3,900 an ounce.
The shutdown immediately affects federal workers, Social Security recipients, and travelers, while markets face disruptions from halted economic data.
Weekly jobless claims, September payrolls, and mid-October inflation figures may be delayed, complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Bitcoin ETFs and institutional buy-in
Institutional activity is adding to a bullish sentiment. BlackRock moved more than $130 million worth of Bitcoin onto Coinbase, a transfer some market watchers interpret as a sign of potential inflows into its investment products.
Since 2015, Bitcoin has averaged a gain of nearly 58% in the fourth quarter, outperforming every other three-month period. Whether 2025 follows that historical playbook will depend on how long investors sustain risk appetite in the months ahead.