Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, per CoinDesk pricing data, still searching for a catalyst strong enough to break the range it has held for weeks.
Selling from spot bitcoin ETFs has eased from earlier this month, but fresh institutional demand has yet to return.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have now posted a sixth straight week of net outflows, data shows, with only a sparse few days of green. The scale has narrowed, but the absence of any sustained inflow shows institutions remain defensive as markets reassess the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.
A bigger weight is the rebounding dollar. After the June meeting, the Fed’s cautious message weakened expectations for near-term rate cuts, lifting the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against major currencies, to the 100.6-100.8 area while keeping Treasury yields high.
With liquidity still tight, capital favors assets with steadier yields over volatile ones like bitcoin.
Easing geopolitical tension after the U.S.-Iran deal has improved risk appetite, a short-term support. It has not been strong enough to offset the firmer dollar and the cautious flows.
Bitcoin will likely hold a $60,000 to $67,000 range in the near term, said Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, in emailed comments to CoinDesk. The market is “balanced between supportive and restrictive forces,” he said, with eased ETF selling and better sentiment on one side and an unsupportive Fed and unconfirmed institutional flows on the other.
A sustainable recovery in the second half would need more time to accumulate, a return of ETF inflows and stronger institutional demand. Until then, the current rebounds look technical rather than the start of a new uptrend.