Two weeks into a Middle Eastern war and bitcoin is higher than where it started.
The largest cryptocurrency was trading at $71,000 on Saturday morning, down 0.7% over the past 24 hours after the U.S. bombed military targets on Kharg Island, Iran’s main crude export facility.
The reversal from Friday’s $73,838 high was sharp but contained. Bitcoin gave back 3.5% on the Kharg headlines and stopped. A month ago, a comparable escalation would have triggered a much deeper sell-off.
The weekly numbers tell the resilience story. Bitcoin is up 4.2% over seven days. Ether gained 5.5% to $2,090. Dogecoin added 5%. Solana rose 4.2% to $88. BNB climbed 4.5% to $655. Every major is green on the week despite the war intensifying, not easing.
The market is adapting to the conflict in real time. Early in the war, every headline produced an outsized reaction because nobody could price the tail risk. Now, traders have a framework, where strikes happen, oil spikes and bitcoin dips only to recover again.
The pattern has repeated enough times that the reflexive sell-the-headline impulse has faded. However, the $73,000-$74,000 resistance level stays in place, and has now rejected bitcoin four times in two weeks.
Trump’s language on Kharg Island added a new variable in the markets.
In a Truth Social post late Friday, he said he spared oil infrastructure “for reasons of decency” but would “immediately reconsider” if Iran continued blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran responded that any strike on energy infrastructure would trigger retaliatory attacks on U.S.-linked facilities in the region. That’s a conditional escalation threat that didn’t exist 48 hours ago. If oil infrastructure becomes a target, the supply disruption, which the IEA already called the largest in history, gets dramatically worse.
Meanwhile, the $371 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours reflected the two-way nature of Friday’s session. Short liquidations outpaced longs at $207 million versus $163 million, meaning the initial surge to $73,800 squeezed bears before the Kharg headlines squeezed the longs who had just entered.
Attention now shifts to the Fed meeting on March 17-18. Oil above $100, the largest energy supply disruption in history, and a war entering its third week with no resolution make the stagflation case harder to dismiss.
CME FedWatch still prices a 95%+ probability of a hold at 3.5% to 3.75%, but the dot plot and Powell’s press conference will matter more than the decision itself. Any hint that rate hikes are back on the table would hit risk assets hard, including a crypto market that has spent five months pricing in cuts that keep not arriving.