Following a three-day streak above $70K, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below this resistance level, trading at $68,131 (down 3.96% in 24) at the time of writing.
Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin selling pressure among short-term holders (STHs), or people who hold BTC for less than 155 days, has recently spiked.
In the last 24h, panic-led STHs have sold over 27,000 BTC for profit on exchanges. This marked the highest level observed in recent months, signaling an upcoming capitulation phase.
Another crypto analyst noted that Bitcoin formed a new death cross on March 3. On this day, the 50-day simple moving average crossed below the 200-day average, signaling bearish momentum.
Is Bitcoin entering a capitulation period?
The death cross has historically signalled an upcoming capitulation phase, followed by a bottoming-out phase. Crypto markets fell an average of 52%, 50%, and 46% following death crosses in 2014, 2018, and 2022, respectively.
CryptoQuant shows a Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR) of 0.54, suggesting whales are increasingly moving their crypto assets to exchanges.
Source: CryptoQuant
Additional metrics supporting the bearish case include Bitcoin’s open interest dropping by 3.94% in the past day to $45.13 billion, while liquidations mounted to $159.29 million.
Just yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETF outflows reached $228 million, reversing a 3-day inflow streak. BlackRock, the largest issuer of crypto ETFs globally, has placed a 5% quarterly cap on withdrawals, seemingly overwhelmed after surging withdrawal requests. Institutional crypto lender BlockFills is preparing for “restructuring” due to a liquidity crisis brought on by $75 million in losses in early 2025.
Rising oil prices amid the prevailing US-Iran war, inflationary fears, and heightened unemployment rates have also triggered de-risking among investors.
What Next?
Technically, Bitcoin could consolidate between $68-$70K if it holds above the $67,757 swing low. Failure to attain this would risk a test of $65K.
The community also awaits broader market price reactions to the March 18 US Federal Reserve policy announcement.