Bitcoin was expected to kick off a strong rally following the fresh Fed rate cuts, as the price was seen stabilizing above $92,000. Interestingly, the price dropped hard to $89,400 during early trading hours, sending shockwaves through the markets and confusing seasoned traders. This could show a disconnect between these bullish factors and BTC price, but in a wider perspective, it may reflect a deeper shift in liquidity and market psychology.
While the surface narrative appears to be positive, here’s why it didn’t drive up the Bitcoin price. Following the FOMC, the BTC price was expected to remain stable above $91,800, bringing it close to $100,000. Furthermore, the price closed above $90,000 following three to four days of consecutive closes below the levels. But what caused this pullback?
- Fed Rate Cuts Aren’t Triggering Risk Appetite: The Fed’s third straight cut came with cautious commentary, prompting investors to de-risk rather than rotate into risk assets like crypto. Rate cuts are acting as a safety net—not a bullish catalyst.
- ETF Inflows Have Slowed, Not Stopped: ETFs remain a structural positive, but inflows have cooled sharply from early-year levels. Instead of driving the market higher, they’re now mostly offsetting passive selling. Supportive, yes—explosive, no.
- Liquidity Has Quietly Dried Up: Stablecoin inflows, the most immediate proxy for crypto liquidity, have flattened out. With fewer fresh dollars entering exchanges, even moderate selling pressure has an outsized effect on BTC’s price action.
Technical Pressure Is Fueling the BTC Price Rally
Bitcoin continues to hover near the $90,000 mark after another rejection from overhead resistance, highlighting a market still struggling to establish directional strength. Despite supportive macro headlines and ETF demand, BTC’s recovery attempts remain shallow, with traders waiting for a decisive breakout or breakdown. The current structure reflects uncertainty: buyers are active but not aggressive enough to reclaim key levels. This makes the upcoming sessions crucial for determining whether Bitcoin can regain momentum or slip into renewed weakness.
The chart shows BTC repeatedly failing to clear the $92,000–$93,000 resistance zone while holding an ascending trendline, creating a tightening structure. Price remains below the mid-Bollinger Band and 20-day SMA, signaling weak short-term momentum. The DMI shows bullish strength fading, with +DI flattening as –DI begins to rise. A break above $93,000 could open a move toward $98,000 and $100,600, while losing the trendline risks a drop toward $88,800 and $86,800 supports.
The Bottom Line—Can Bitcoin Reclaim $95,000 in 2025?
From a structural standpoint, Bitcoin’s ability to retest and reclaim $95,000 in 2025 will depend on whether the current compression resolves to the upside. BTC must first secure a daily close above the $92,000–$93,000 supply zone, followed by a clean break of the $98,000 resistance—the midpoint of the prior distribution range. Momentum indicators remain neutral to weak, and liquidity is still constrained, suggesting the market lacks the fuel for an immediate breakout.
However, if stablecoin inflows recover and the trendline support holds, a measured move toward $95,000 remains technically achievable in Q1–Q2 2025. Until then, upside attempts are likely to face strong rejection pressure unless volume expansion confirms a shift in market control.
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