Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin still holding firm as U.S. markets soften?
Yes. BTC remains above $100K even as Housing Starts decline and the S&P 500 turns lower.
What happens if BTC loses its current support?
A break below $100K could trigger a drop toward the $90K-$95K zone.
Bitcoin [BTC] is holding firm even as traditional markets show signs of strain. This resilience has caused talk of a liquidity shift toward crypto if the Fed pivots dovish.
Housing starts are sending a warning
Housing Starts (new privately-owned homes being built in the U.S.) are rolling over again. So far, that’s rarely ever been a neutral signal.
This is one of the earliest places where economic slowdowns show up: demand softens, financing becomes harder, and builders pull back. The charts make it more obvious: Housing Starts are trending lower while the S&P 500 is notching new highs.
Source: Alphractal
That gap has not persisted in previous cycles.
Each time this pattern appeared, equity volatility followed as earnings expectations reset and positioning unwound. The U.S. economy is showing fatigue, and housing data tends to reveal it first.
Source: Alphractal
Here’s the next tell
BTC topped out last month, right alongside Ethereum [ETH] and Gold, but the more important test is just beginning.
Source: X
As the S&P 500 rolls over, the question now is whether Bitcoin breaks lower with it… or refuses to make a new low.
If BTC manages to hold its higher-low structure while equities correct, that’s the same dynamic we saw in April 2025. It was a show of relative strength and early positioning.
But if the floor gives way, the next heavy support zone sits closer to $90,000… and those levels can get tagged fast.
A decision zone
On the daily chart, Bitcoin held above the $100k region at press time, but momentum is clearly soft.
RSI was near 37, so the market wasn’t oversold yet…but conviction was certainly fading. Volume had thinned out as well, and OBV continued to drift lower. Perhaps buyers aren’t stepping in aggressively.
Source: TradingView
Price was also pinned below key EMAs, which keeps short-term bias tilted bearish. So the next impulse will matter.
Hold this level and BTC can build a base. Lose it, and the path toward the lower support cluster near $95k-$98k opens quickly.