Following the recent downturn, the Bitcoin price is struggling to build a sustained recovery and hold the rally above $80,000. The token has been testing a support zone multiple times this month, which has transformed it into an important zone to secure. While the buyers have managed to defend the zone so far, weakening momentum raises questions about whether the star crypto can regain its bullish trajectory. Can the BTC price reclaim the $82,000 range and move towards $84,000?
Bitcoin Price Tests $79,500 Support
Bitcoin continues to hover above $79,500 after several tests of the support zone, making it a crucial level for the near-term price outlook. Despite repeated selling pressure, buyers have defended this area so far, keeping the possibility of a recovery alive. A rise above $82,000 could bring $83,500 and potentially $84,000 into focus. Conversely, a decisive break below $79,500 would weaken the bullish setup.
The bullish case hinges on a potential hidden bullish divergence between the price and the RSI. This pattern forms when the price records a higher low while the RSI makes a lower low, suggesting that the prevailing uptrend could resume. Besides, the CVD is currently positive, showing the rise in buying pressure but not yet confirming the aggressive buying required to secure the range above the local resistance.
Bitcoin Volatility Nears Summer 2023 Levels
Bitcoin’s realised volatility has dropped to around 25%, bringing it closer to the subdued levels last seen in summer 2023, when the indicator fell towards 18%, according to the Glassnode chart. This decline suggests that BTC’s price fluctuations have eased considerably compared with periods of heightened market activity.
The return towards summer 2023 volatility levels stands out because such subdued conditions can precede a shift in market activity. With BTC repeatedly testing the $79,500 support zone, an increase in volatility could determine whether buyers manage to trigger a recovery or sellers push the price lower. A move above $82,000 could strengthen the bullish case, while a breakdown below $79,500 could bring renewed selling pressure into focus.
Bitcoin Exchange Flows Hint at Changing Selling Pressure
Bitcoin’s exchange-flow data provides another perspective on the current market outlook. The CryptoQuant chart shows predominantly negative net flows through much of October, indicating that more BTC has been leaving exchanges than entering them during these periods. With Bitcoin repeatedly testing the $79,500 support zone, exchange flows remain an important metric to watch alongside price action and trading volume.
Sustained exchange outflows can suggest that investors are moving Bitcoin into private wallets or long-term storage, potentially reducing the supply readily available for selling on exchanges. A continuation of negative net flows could support the bullish case if buying demand also strengthens. Conversely, a shift towards positive net flows could indicate an increase in the BTC available on exchanges, although the reason for those transfers would need further investigation.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Reach $84,000?
Bitcoin’s next move will depend on whether buyers can defend the $79,500 support zone and push the price back above nearby resistance. The potential hidden bullish divergence, subdued realised volatility and sustained negative exchange netflows offer signals to monitor, but none independently confirms an upside breakout.
Bullish scenario: If BTC holds above $79,500 and reclaims the 81,000–82,000 range, buying momentum could improve. A move beyond $83,500 would strengthen the recovery setup and bring the $84,000 target into focus.
Bearish scenario: A decisive break below $79,500 could undermine the bullish setup and expose BTC to further losses. Weak momentum or a rise in exchange inflows could add to concerns, although neither would confirm a breakdown on its own.
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