At first glance, the data looked worrying. The numbers showed long-term holders (LTHs) selling Bitcoin [BTC] heavily, with worries about whether BTC was starting to crack.
But a closer look tells you more.
Analysts now say the spike was distorted, which means the narrative around Bitcoin’s latest moves may be far less dramatic than perceived.
A narrative that’s falling apart
Claims that Bitcoin’s LTHs are dumping coins have been overstated.
A recent post by analyst Darkfost on X said that the spike in selling pressure was largely the result of a technical distortion.
In late November, Coinbase moved nearly 800,000 BTC, destroying old long-term holder UTXOs and creating new ones when Bitcoin traded around $85,000.
Source: X
The recent internal reshuffle distorted on‑chain data, creating the impression that LTHs were selling more than they actually were.
Once Coinbase‑related transactions are excluded, the data reveal that LTHs are selling at a steady, normal pace consistent with previous cycles.
Adding to that…
When the NVT Golden Cross drops into deeply undervalued territory, it has preceded accumulation. We’re seeing a similar move now, with the indicator climbing back toward neutral levels.
Source: CryptoQuant
The market is transitioning into a more balanced valuation. In past cycles, that pattern was in tandem with steadier demand and healthier price discovery.
While it doesn’t guarantee immediate gains, it does show the current environment is more consistent with accumulation.
What next for BTC
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s RSI was near oversold levels, and past data shows that such dips often happen before relief rallies. However, price action remains below major EMAs, so bullishness isn’t yet fully restored.
Source: X
Analysts like Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn argue that 2026 may stay uncertain, with wide price ranges showing the current ambiguity.
Bitcoin’s market is maturing, with more institutional involvement and use as a hedge. While it might struggle to stay above $100k in the short term, the long-term outlook is positive.
This is evident with their bold $250K prediction for late next year!
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin’s LTHs are selling normally, not panicking.
- Indicators and institutional activity show a maturing market. There’s potential for $250K BTC by late 2026.