Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin’s $100k support at risk?
Bitcoin buyers are hesitant, capitulation pressure is rising, and market sentiment is deep into extreme fear.
What’s driving the market risk?
Macro movements continue to weigh heavily, with $1 trillion wiped out in just a month. At the same time, leverage is creeping back in.
Is Bitcoin’s [BTC] breakdown below $100k inevitable?
Despite BTC closing October with a 3.52% drop, it started November even lower, down 6.6% on the week. That means buyers aren’t stepping in hard, leaving the market uncertain about whether BTC has truly bottomed.
Basically, investor sentiment’s calling the shots, not price structure. According to AMBCrypto, this could be why a deeper correction isn’t off the table, with Bitcoin sitting in a delicate balance between fear and patience.
$1 trillion gone, fear maxed, patience wearing thin
Macro movements continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
In just a month, $1 trillion has been wiped out of the crypto market. Notably, BTC accounted for 23% of these outflows, suggesting that the de-risking has been “market-led,” with 70% coming from altcoin flushes.
Meanwhile, 300k traders are liquidated daily, keeping the market super reactive. And yet, Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) just hit a two-week high at 0.22, with the market-wide Open Interest (OI) up $5 billion.
Source: Glassnode
With that, Bitcoin’s now in “extreme” fear territory.
In fact, the chart above shows BTC breaking the 22 fear threshold for the first time since the April FUD, when BTC dumped roughly 8% and capitulation pushed it back to the early-election level of $76k.
Notably, back then, realized losses spiked to $2.2 billion. Fast-forward to now, the market’s bearish, caution is high, and investor patience is thinning. So, could this be the start of Bitcoin’s next capitulation phase?
Bitcoin $100k support hanging by a thread
Bitcoin investors are sitting at a key inflection point.
CryptoQuant data shows nearly 1/3 of BTC supply is underwater, roughly 28% of circulating supply. From here, BTC could either bottom or, if conviction falters, a deeper breakdown could take shape.
Notably, as the analysis above showed, sentiment’s tilting more toward caution than opportunity. In this context, with BTC now back at mid-June levels, both STHs and LTHs are sitting on higher risk of capitulation.
Source: CryptoQuant
In fact, Bitcoin’s realized losses just hit $1.76 billion.
The result? BTC kicked off November with a 4.71% dip, slicing through $100k for the first time in five months. STH NUPL also plunged into capitulation at -0.107 (for time since April), showing STHs taking losses.
In short, the market is feeling the capitulation vibes, with both price action and sentiment tilting toward caution. If it sticks, Bitcoin LTHs have little incentive to hold, flipping $100k from support into resistance.