Benjamin Cowen’s Memo Suggests Bitcoin Could Bottom Under $45K in Q4

The latest Bitcoin market memo from Benjamin Cowen isn’t exactly what eager bulls wanted to hear. While the recent recovery above the 200-week SMA had offered some relief, the report says that this move doesn’t necessarily mean that it is an end of broader correction.

Instead, it points toward a potential fourth quarter bottoming window, with the possibility of Bitcoin falling under $45K region before the next major cycle begins.

Why Benjamin Cowen Suggests the 200-Week SMA Still Matters

Per the memo, BTC/USD briefly slipped below 200-week SMA during its early-summer decline near $57K during reclaiming the level during a rebound to approx $65.3K.

However, the report notes that a similar break-and-reclaim pattern also appeared in 2022, well before that cycle eventually reached its final low.

That said, the memo also highlights that the closely followed 2019 cycle comparison has now exceeded its expected timing without delivering the sharp capitulation seen previously. Rather than a dramatic collapse, the analysis suggests the current reset may be unfolding through time instead of price alone.

BTC Onchain Signal Remains Mixed

Several on-chain indicators continue supporting a cautious stance. The report notes the risk readings have entered historically attractive accumulation zones, while the percentage of supply in profit and loss crossed during early-summer decline, a condition previously associated with historical bottoming periods.

Even so, the Loading profile preview ‘s memo argues the retest isn’t simple and can’t be confirmed as complete yet. The MVRV Z-score has bounced instead of moving below zero, price approached realized price near $53K without testing it, and market breadth has continued weakening despite recent recovery. It also points out that ETF holdings, which previously absorbed significant supply, have begun rolling over.

Macro Calendar Still Keeping Bears Interested

The broader macro backdrop also remains part of the bearish framework outlined in the report. The memo clearly notes that 2026 is a U.S. midterm election year, historically the weakest phase of the four year market cycle.

Previous midterm years often experienced summer rallies followed by weaker August and September performance before establishing cycle lows during the Q4.

Beyond seasonality, the report cites cooling inflation due to the earlier oil price weakness, renewed geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz, and the Federal Reserve that has shifted away from an easing bias, while maintaining elevated real interest rates.

For now, the Benjamin Cowen’s memo keeps Bitcoin in what it describes as a “bottom-watch” phase rather than a confirmed recovery. According to the analysis, a sustained weekly reclaim above the 50-week SMA near $86.5K would weaken the bearish outlook, while patience remains the preferred approach until stronger confirmation emerges.

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