Researchers at the crypto firm Galaxy Digital think the Bitcoin (BTC) bear market ended four months ago.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, says in a new analysis that Bitcoin is currently in “the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance.”
“On a technical basis, the 200-week moving average held, the 50-week moving average has been regained for five straight weeks, and at day 916 of the halving cycle, Bitcoin is past the window in which every prior cycle bottomed.
Positioning says the sellers are mostly gone: the basis traders and macro tourists who were long into October 2025 have cut their ETF and futures exposure by more than half, while everyone else has mostly held. Equities sit near records, while BTC needs a 53% rise just to retake its own all-time high.
The fundamental case has only strengthened: the likelihood of medium-term debasement by a sovereign running $2 trillion deficits at 5% yields.”
Thorn also notes that sentiment has swung towards “blockchain, not Bitcoin” for the third time since he’s covered the market. The researcher says each previous iteration of that narrative preceded massive gains for the top crypto asset by market cap.
“In 2015–16 the banks’ R3 consortium and The Economist’s ‘Trust Machine’ cover made ‘blockchain, not Bitcoin’ the respectable position; the episode’s lowest weekly BTC close was $231, and the next cycle high was 83x higher.
In 2018–19 the refrain became ‘blockchain, not crypto.’ JPM Coin and Libra were unveiled while Bitcoin was left for dead at $3,195; the next cycle high was 20x higher.”
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