Compared to the early days of May, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization is not as strong. The value of the global cryptocurrency market was $2.56 trillion at the time of publication.
At the same time, the market cap of altcoin was $1.097 trillion.
However, the CoinMarketCap altcoin index was at 38 at the time of writing, indicating that the altcoin season has little room to occur because the Bitcoin [BTC] season is still going strong.
Zooming out, however, shows that the cryptocurrency market is in a bullish zone because Bitcoin has returned above the $75,000 price level.
What’s behind this rebound?
Following days of geopolitical pressure, US President Donald Trump’s announcement that a peace deal with Iran had been “largely negotiated” calmed market concerns and caused a spike in the cryptocurrency market.
Interestingly, altcoins outperformed Bitcoin in this instance. This indicated that traders returned to riskier assets after the headlines about the peace deal eased their immediate anxiety.
Part of the recovery was driven by AI-related tokens. Worldcoin [WLD] rose 11.7%, and NEAR Protocol [NEAR] rose 17.7% in a single day and over 58% in a week.
Zcash [ZEC] gained 7.1% over the course of a day, indicating that privacy-linked assets also increased. During the same time frame, other significant altcoins such as Ondo [ONDO] rebounded by 15%, and Hyperliquid [HYPE] recovered by 12.3%.
Additionally, this jump also came after Bitcoin Pizza Day.
Even with all of this momentum, the altcoin index is still below the 75 level that would signal the beginning of altcoin season.
Then vs. now market sentiment around the altcoin season
Remarking on the same, a known analyst, Michaël van de Poppe, said,
This is a very different situation from what was observed at the end of April.
According to what AMBCrypto previously reported, analysts at that time determined that the price action resembled the accumulation phase preceding earlier altseasons.
Therefore, they predicted that a significant altcoin rally may occur in 2026 or 2027 if the pattern repeats.
Indeed, there is a spike in the filing of such coins in the ETF space as well. HYPE ETF inflows outpaced Ethereum [ETH] on five of the six days and Bitcoin on three of the six days.
Moreover, asset managers Grayscale and VanEck modified their S-1 filings with the SEC.
What are the other on-chain metrics hinting at?
However, the average 14-day correlation of altcoins to bitcoin, which tracks the price movement of bitcoin, indicates that altcoin season is not yet here. According to the metric, the crypto market continues to act as though Bitcoin is the main driver and altcoins are primarily passengers.
Furthermore, a chart showing the percentage of altcoins trading close to their all-time lows supported the idea that while Bitcoin might be doing well, the average altcoin is still having a terrible time.
Final Summary
- The overall crypto market rebounded after President Trump’s announcement, but altcoins gained more.
- However, the altcoin season and other on-chain metrics suggested that the altcoin season is not near the horizon.