Bitcoin’s recovery attempt has carried it back above $80,000 for the first time since late January 2026, giving bulls a reason to argue that the worst of the recent correction has passed. However, one crypto analyst believes the move is running directly into the level that could decide how May ends for BTC.
In a technical outlook shared on X, crypto analyst Leshka warned that Bitcoin is likely to close May in the red, pointing to a bear flag structure playing out on the daily chart.
Why Bitcoin Will Close May In Red
Leshka’s outlook on Bitcoin is based on its price action since the February dump. The daily candlestick timeframe chart shows BTC recovering inside an ascending channel, with price grinding higher from the $60,000 region into the $80,000 range at the time of writing. This recovery looks constructive because the movement has caused Bitcoin to print higher lows and higher highs since the February low.
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However, Leshka interprets the same structure differently. According to the analyst, the rising channel is a bear flag currently in formation. A bear flag usually appears when price bounces upward in a controlled channel after a major drop, only to later break below the structure and continue lower.
As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin’s recent advance is shown pressing on the upper boundary of the ascending channel, and this is around the same area where the 200-day moving average is located. Interestingly, Bitcoin has gone seven months without a daily close above this moving average, and this makes it a major line between a recovery rally and a confirmed trend reversal.
At the time of writing, the 200 MA is around $82,000. The outlook here depends on how the Bitcoin price reacts to this level. The projected bearish path proposed by the analyst shows Bitcoin making one final push into the resistance/200 MA confluence before reversing lower, losing the channel, and falling back to the $58,000 to $56,000 range by June.
BTC’s May Record Faces A Major Test
Bitcoin is already up 7.11% so far in May 2026. Bitcoin’s monthly return table shows that May has often been one of its stronger months, with an average gain of 18.7% and a median return of 8.32% across previous years. Bitcoin’s price action for May in the last two years was positive, with the cryptocurrency gaining 11.1% in both May 2024 and May 2025.
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That historical strength is what makes this prediction more interesting. The problem is that the rally is now pressing into the exact resistance zone where the 200-day moving average is situated.
Previous red May closes have also appeared during difficult market phases, including a 35.4% decline in May 2021, a 15.9% decline in May 2022, and a 7.10% decline in May 2023. Leshka’s view is that 2026 could join that group if the current move fails at the top of the ascending channel.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com