Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin showing signs of accumulation?
Binance’s sender-to-receiver ratio just hit its lowest since early 2024, a sign of growing HODLer behavior.
Are altcoins in a buy zone?
Only 24% of Binance-listed alts are above their 200-day SMA, a pattern linked to accumulation phases.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] been holding its ground and getting stronger.
Even with long-term holders (LTHs) cashing in some profits, BTC barely flinched, resting near $110K through September.
But now, Binance’s BTC sender-to-receiver ratio just dropped, and only 24% of Binance-listed alts are trading above their 200-day MA.
Most of the market looks like it’s in accumulating in preparation for something bigger.
Fewer senders, more HODLers?
The 1-month MA of Binance’s Bitcoin sender-to-receiver ratio just hit its lowest point since early 2024.
This metric tracks how many people are sending BTC versus receiving it; and when receivers start to dominate, it indicates accumulation. In plain terms, fewer people are selling, and more are just sitting tight.
Source: Cryptoquant
Spikes in this ratio have so far lined up with market tops. So, a sharp decline? That could mean the opposite, that there’s room for more.
The month gone by
And here’s where it gets even more interesting.
Despite signs of accumulation, September wasn’t exactly quiet. Binance data shows that LTHs started to take profits as prices swung from $117K down to $108K.
But rather than triggering a panic, the market barely flinched.
Source: Cryptoquant
Most of the movement came from coins held between 6 months and 5 years, with the 7-10 year category showing only light activity.
The real test was that BTC stayed remarkably stable near $110K even as these older coins hit the market.
That’s not what you’d expect during a sell-off. It’s more like the market took the hit, and shrugged it off!
Altcoins are still in the bargain bin
While Bitcoin holds strong and LTHs take profits without shaking the floor, the altcoin market’s got its own story.
Just 24% of Binance-listed altcoins are trading above their 200-day SMA; a far cry from the kind of levels we see during bull market euphoria.
Source: X
When this number dips close to zero, it’s usually been a pretty reliable marker of big accumulation phases.
In other words, the smart money may already be shopping. It’s not flashy, and it’s definitely not trending… but that might be exactly the point.