By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
It’s a new day, but the same story: is struggling and is trying to hold the $4,000 range. Crypto bulls can take some comfort in the fact that there is only one week left in September, a historically bearish month, and what’s usually the strongest quarter is just around the corner.
Sentiment within the industry remains subdued. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 45, which is neutral, but leaning slightly closer toward fear than greed. Part of the reason is bitcoin’s underperformance compared with traditional assets. In the past three months, bitcoin has added 7%, while the S&P 500 gained 9% and gold 12%.
Looking ahead, $17 billion worth of bitcoin options expire tomorrow, with a max pain price (the level at which option holders would experience the most financial loss) of $110,000. That is slightly below the current spot price of $112,000 and could provide short-term gravitational pull. For now, bitcoin is expected to consolidate between $110,000 and $116,000 until October.
Meanwhile, the most notable action continues to be in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing stocks such as IREN (IREN). Bitcoin treasury companies, however, remain under pressure. KindlyMD (NAKA) is struggling at $1.17, just above its Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) pricing, and Metaplanet (3350) fell another 4% in Tokyo. The stock has dropped more than 70% from its all-time high, leaving it trading at a 1.24 multiple to net asset value (mNAV). This decline highlights how mNAVs have compressed across the broader market. Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto
- Macro
- Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August Durable Goods Orders MoM composite Est. -0.5%, ex transportation Est. 0%.
- Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 GDP (final) Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.3%.
- Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims initial (w/e Sept. 20) Est. 235K, continuing (w/e Sept. 13) Est. 1930K.
- Sept. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q2 PCE Prices (final) QoQ headline Est. 2%; core Est. 2.5%.
- Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: U.S. August Existing Home Sales Est. 3.98M.
- Sept. 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech on “Supervision and Regulation.”
- Sept. 25, 1 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speech on “Bank Stress Testing.”
- Sept. 25, 3 p.m.: Mexico benchmark interest rate Est. 7.5%.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Unlocks
- Sept. 25: to unlock 2.28% of its released supply worth $7.98 million.
- Token Launches
- Sept. 25: Aster (ASTER) to list on BTSE.
- Sept. 25: Plasma (XPL) to list on 10+ exchanges including Binance, OKX and Bitget.
- Sept. 25: to list on Gate US.
- Sept. 25: Avantis (AVNT) to list on BTSE.
Conferences
Token Talk
by Francisco Rodrigues
- The price of Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is significantly underperforming the wider crypto market, mainly due to growing competition from BNB Chain-based derivatives exchange Aster and forthcoming token unlocks.
- Aster, which is backed by YZi Labs, overtook Hyperliquid in daily perpetual trading volume this week in an upset that sent shockwaves through crypto’s on-chain trading ecosystem.
- In just one week, Aster’s open interest ballooned 33,500%, leaping from $3.7 million to $1.25 billion. Its 24-hour trading volume hit $35.8 billion, more than double that of Hyperliquid, which logged $10 billion according to DeFiLlama data. Total value locked (TVL) on Aster also jumped, almost tripling to $1.85 billion.
- The platform’s token, ASTER, has added more than 344% in the past week to $2, giving it a fully diluted valuation of $15.9 billion. HYPE slid to $43 from $58.4.
- HYPE’s drop coincides investor anxiety over upcoming token unlocks. In late November, 237 million HYPE, worth more than $10 billion at current prices, will gradually become liquid over a two-year period.
Derivatives Positioning
- Open interest (OI) in futures tied to many major tokens has declined in the past 24 hours, with AVAX witnessing the sharpest drop, nearly 12%.
- Still, overall positioning in BTC futures remains elevated, with OI hovering close to record highs. ETH’s futures OI has increased to 14.45 million ETH, despite large liquidations on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid.
- OI in USDT- and dollar-denominated SOL perpetuals on major exchanges has increased slightly from 29 million SOL to 30.28 million SOL since Asian hours, as the spot price drops toward $200. Some traders seem to be shorting the decline.
- XRP, SOL, HBAR, TRX, SUI and XLM stand out as coins with negative funding rates, pointing to a bias for bearish short positions.
- On the CME, the downtrend in BTC futures OI has resumed while OI in ether futures has risen back to record highs above 2.2 million ETH. The annualized three-month basis in ETH has dropped to 7% from 9.8% in a sign of weakening of bullish pressures.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH put options continue to draw premium relative to calls, painting a bearish picture. Some traders picked up out-of-the-money lower strike ether puts via OTC desk Paradigm.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 1.71% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $111,622.87 (24hrs: -1.06%)
- ETH is down 3.38% at $4,026.82 (24hrs: -3.47%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.52% at 3,923.42 (24hrs: -2.57%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 2.9%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0022% (2.3586% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.84
- Gold futures are up 0.39% at $3,782.80
- Silver futures are up 1.95% at $45.06
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.27% at 45,754.93
- Hang Seng closed down 0.13% at 26,484.68
- FTSE is down 0.14% at 9,237.23
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.25% at 5,450.72
- DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.37% at 46,121.28
- S&P 500 closed down 0.28% at 6,637.97
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.33% at 22,497.86
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.20% at 29,756.95
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.55% at 2,941.02
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.8 bps at 4.139%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,691.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.16% at 24,699.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 46,471.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.92% (+0.45%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03612 (-1.47%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,095 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $49.79
- Total fees: 2.88 BTC / $325,474
- CME Futures Open Interest: 136,940 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 29.8 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.44%
Technical Analysis
- is looking south, having bearishly dropped out of a narrowing price range early this week.
- The price has penetrated the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support, with downward sloping 5- and 10-day simple moving averages indicating a bearish bias.
- The focus now shifts to $3,591, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $321.77 (+0.53%), -1.37% at $317.37
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $131.58 (+0.47%), -0.3% at $131.18
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $34.29 (+3.47%), -0.85% at $34
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $67.59 (-2.73%), -1.97% at $66.26
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.64 (-0.4%), -0.68% at $17.52
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.99 (+5.39%), -0.89% at $17.83
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.01 (+0.06%), -0.82% at $16.87
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $14.45 (+3.88%), -1.59% at $14.22
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $45 (+4.9%), +1.71% at $45.77
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $32 (+12.08%), +2.84% at $32.91
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $323.31 (-1.36%), -0.87% at $320.50
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $31.62 (-3.18%), +0.57% at $31.80
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $17.58 (+3.35%), -3.24% at $17.01
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.16 (-0.16%), -3.57% at $5.94
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.7 (+2.66%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $241 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.45 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$79.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $13.64 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.6 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
- Ether Falls to $4K, BTC, XRP Slide as U.S. Government Shutdown Risks Mount (CoinDesk): Polymarket traders put the odds of a federal government shutdown at 77%. Federal agencies are drafting unpaid leave plans as Congress faces a Sept. 30 deadline to pass stopgap funding.
- Stablecoin Issuer Circle Examines ‘Reversible’ Transactions in Departure for Crypto (Financial Times): Circle is exploring a counter-payments layer for its Arc blockchain to allow refunds and has developed a confidentiality feature to hide transaction amounts, though it has not yet been released.
- Nine European Banks Join Forces to Issue MiCA-Compliant Euro Stablecoin (CoinDesk): ING, UniCredit, Danske Bank, CaixaBank, SEB, KBC, Banca Sella, DekaBank and Raiffeisen plan to launch a MiCA-regulated euro stablecoin in the second half of 2026 to challenge U.S. dominance.
- Australia Looks to Bring Crypto Under Financial Services Framework With New Draft Legislation (CoinDesk): The draft law would require crypto platforms to hold financial service licenses under the Australian Securities and Investments Commission oversight, with consultation open until Oct. 24.
- White House Eyes New Round of Mass Layoffs if Government Shuts Down (The New York Times): A White House memo ordered federal agencies to plan for furloughs and layoffs targeting jobs seen as politically misaligned, escalating tensions before the Sept. 30 funding deadline.