The market has flipped its direction after the U.S. pulled back its threat of attacking Iran.
With Bitcoin holding above $80k, the setup looks technically bullish. This could mean the recent calls for a drop back to $75k are getting too bearish, with the next move potentially pointing higher. The strong 24-hour momentum adds weight to this rebound thesis.
As shown in the chart below, Brent Crude oil prices have fallen by over 2% after coming close to hitting $120 for the first time since 2022. At the same time, rate hike odds have also fallen by over 0.6% from their previous close, alleviating some pressure on risk assets heading into the FOMC meeting.
In essence, Bitcoin’s [BTC] current setup looks like a classic pre-breakout setup.
Despite the recent FUD and increasing oil prices, BTC has shown strong resilience by holding firm around the $80k level, showing that bulls are coming in to defend this range. However, on-chain data is telling a different story, creating a divergence between the technical setup and the underlying market activity.
For starters, there is a lack of bullish sentiment in the crypto space, with the Fear & Greed Index now sitting at 50. This is the lowest it has been since mid-September, when BTC was sitting around $75k.
So, with sentiment now back at the same level while Bitcoin holds near $80k, the divergence suggests Bitcoin could be looking overvalued relative to market sentiment.
This puts Bitcoin’s recent resilience in a tricky spot. Despite holding above $80k and showing signs of underlying strength, the weak sentiment may show that the price is getting ahead of itself.
Without new buying to confirm the move, the ongoing relief rally could turn into a bull trap, catching late buyers offside.
Bitcoin’s macro relief rally faces a reality check
A relief rally without strong Spot demand can quickly turn into a fakeout.
Bitcoin’s on-chain data is already showing signs of this disconnect. Despite a drop in oil prices and lower rate hike expectations after the U.S. de-escalated tensions with Iran, there has not been an increase in buying pressure from U.S. investors.
This is evident by the Coinbase Premium Gap hitting a five-month low of -$118, with BTC trading around $80k, pointing to weaker bid pressure from U.S. investors.
Meanwhile, BTC has over $80 million in bids stacked between $78k and $79k. Yesterday, bids around $80k were filled, triggering the “short-term” rally. This indicates that buyers are defending key levels, but with spot demand still weak, BTC could struggle to sustain the rebound.
In short, Bitcoin’s resilience doesn’t confirm a pre-breakout setup just yet.
Instead, rising speculative liquidity could set the stage for a sharp move once key levels break. According to one analyst, over $10 billion in upside liquidity is stacked around $85k versus just over $3 billion below $80k.
This gives the bulls an upside liquidity pool of over 3x the downside, so if BTC breaks above $85k, the market could see a massive short squeeze.
However, with spot demand still weak, technicals in doubt and greed absent, Bitcoin’s rebound may be setting up a bull trap before any upside liquidity sweep. For now, this looks more like a macro-driven relief rally rather than a confirmed breakout.
Final Summary
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Bitcoin’s hold above $80k looks bullish, but weak demand and fading greed raise bull trap risks.
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A break above $85k could trigger a short squeeze, but BTC needs stronger buying pressure to sustain the rally.