Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is cautioning that Bitcoin could still be at risk of setting a new cycle low later this year, pointing to historical patterns from previous bear markets.
In a recent YouTube update, Cowen examines the time gaps between major lows in past cycles, suggesting the current market may not yet be out of danger.
“In 2014, Bitcoin set a low in April and the next low wasn’t until October,” Cowen says, noting that the gap between those lows was about 174 days.
He adds that in 2018, the market saw similar behavior, with roughly 143 days between key lows, followed by another stretch of around 147 days before a decisive bottom formed.
Cowen emphasizes that even the act of breaking prior lows often takes months.
“In terms of how long did it take to just take out the low, it took about half a year,” he explains, referencing prior cycles.
Looking at more recent data, he points out that in 2022 it took roughly “140 something days” to break the June low. By comparison, the current cycle may still be early in that timeline.
“How long has it taken since the February low? We’re currently on day 88.”
Based on that historical framework, Cowen warns that further downside remains a realistic possibility.
“Who’s to know what’ll happen in 3 months? Who’s to know? I mean, there’s certainly a chance that Bitcoin will find a new low later this year, just like it did in prior bear markets.”
He also cautions investors not to misinterpret extended rallies as confirmation of a new bull cycle.
“You can have rallies that last for months that draw people back in, that make them FOMO back in, but that doesn’t mean necessarily that it’s any different from other bear markets that we’ve seen.”
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