XRP has been trying to carry its momentum higher after last week’s rally, but at the moment, it’s running into a familiar ceiling. The token is now hovering at the top of its consolidation band, trading in the roughly $1.3 to $1.4 area, yet buyers have not been able to push it through into a sustained breakout.
Even so, XRP’s daily MACD has flipped bullish for the first time since January, a shift that could signal improving momentum and a potential renewed leg up.
According to market expert Sam Daodu, whether this reversal holds will depend on key developments over the next ten days. Several major macro and regulatory milestones will act as the near-term ‘trigger points’.
This Signal Has Big History
Daodu notes that on XRP’s daily chart, the MACD line remained below the signal line for most of 2026. Attempts to flip bullish repeatedly failed until now. The difference this time, he says, is that the bullish change has managed to hold rather than reversing immediately.
He also points out that when XRP has seen the MACD flip before, it hasn’t been a small event. The last time the same type of bullish signal held, XRP recorded its biggest move in months.
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Back in early January, the MACD flipped bullish, and the token rallied about 25% in one week. That move culminated in a peak around $2.40 on January 7, which Daodu describes as XRP’s strongest rally of the year at the time—and one that began with the same bullish momentum setup that’s reappearing now.
Even with the momentum indicator turning, Daodu argues that XRP still needs two key catalysts to break out cleanly rather than merely oscillating inside the current range.
The first is regulatory progress tied to the CLARITY Act. Specifically, he says the CLARITY Act markup needs to happen before May, because institutional participation often depends on clearer regulatory visibility.
The second catalyst is geopolitical resolution—he expects the ceasefire in the war to be extended beyond April 22. Put together, those developments are important because they could unlock additional institutional demand that has been waiting for clarity.
XRP Breakout Watch
Daodu projects that if both of those factors fall into place, institutions waiting for regulatory cover could pour another $4 to $8 billion into XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
From a price-confirmation perspective, he adds that a daily close above $1.55 would validate the MACD flip and reinforce the idea that the current breakout attempt is more than a temporary spike.
If that confirmation arrives, the upside targets he references will point back towards $1.80. This would represent a 25% rally in the altcoin’s price from the current level of $1.43.
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There is, however, a clearer path for the rally to stall. The fastest way for momentum to fade, in his view, is for the ceasefire to expire on April 22 without a new deal.
If fighting resumes, he expects oil prices to climb back above $100, which can quickly pressure risk assets. In that environment, the MACD could flip back to bearish. And if the CLARITY Act also stalls beyond May, he expects that XRP would likely give back the move it has built so far, potentially sliding to $1.30 or lower.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com