A market expert has outlined five distinct phases in the Bitcoin (BTC) bear market that could indicate when the leading cryptocurrency has hit a bottom. The analysis concludes that the cryptocurrency could still face additional downward pressure before ultimately reaching its final price floor this year.
The Early Phases Of Bitcoin’s Price Bottom
Ardi, a technical analyst on X, has used the market structure and price movements during the 2022 bear market to predict when Bitcoin could reach a price floor in this current bear cycle. In his analysis, he shared the five phases that could indicate that a bottoming process is already underway.
According to the analyst, these five distinct stages have repeated across multiple assets, eras, and cycles, meaning they are not just limited to Bitcoin and could be used to determine the bottom timeline of other cryptocurrencies. He noted that Phase A is marked by an abrupt halt in the previous trend that has been pushing the Bitcoin price downward. He stated that a violent event usually takes place here, breaking the old momentum and forcing the market out of a clean downtrend.
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In Phase B, Ardi emphasized that this is where Bitcoin’s trading range will likely begin building. The analyst noted that the market is currently in this stage, suggesting that Bitcoin could still be months away from hitting a bottom. He explained that this stage is typically the longest of the five, often causing investors and traders to lose interest as prices consolidate and move sideways without a clear direction for weeks or months.
After this comes Phase C, which the analyst described as a critical “test.” During this period, BTC is expected to make one final move in the direction of its previous downtrend, shaking out the weak hands and trapping bulls. Based on the analyst’s chart, Phase C will likely mark Bitcoin’s final market bottom. However, Ardi expects this move to trigger breakout traders into taking wrong positions, allowing the market to determine whether any significant pressure remains.
The Final Stages Of The Bottoming Process
Moving forward, Ardi noted that Phase D likely marks the end of the Bitcoin bear market, with a new trend gradually taking shape ahead of a bullish breakout. During this period, Bitcoin’s market structure could begin to strengthen, even as overall sentiment remains cautious, and participants may still feel uncertain about the safety of entering long positions.
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For the final phase of this bottoming process, Ardi expects Bitcoin to break out of its range-bound movement, making the emerging bullish trend more visible to the broader market. He noted that most traders trust this stage because it is the first point at which the market’s direction appears clear.
However, he warned that this can be a trap. Traders often buy only when conditions feel safe and sell when the trend seems obvious, but by then, they may have already lost their advantage and missed the opportunity to accumulate at lower prices.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com