Bitcoin
BTC is up a bit from what’s now becoming a renewed pattern of panicky weekend selling, but down from around the $90,000 late Friday. Rising odds of a government shutdown on Jan. 31 — and the crimp on liquidity that might entail — were among the leading reasons for the Sunday selloff.
That exact same news, however, left precious metals bulls unfazed. Gold soared through $5,000 and then $5,100 for the first time ever on Sunday and Monday, while silver raced as high as $118. Exhaustion signs, though, could be setting in. Gold has retreated all the way back to $5,043 — now up 1.3% for the day — while silver has retreated to $108, still higher by 7%.
“Gold and silver casually adding an entire bitcoin market cap in a single day,” wrote well-followed crypto analyst Will Clemente, summing up the mood of bitcoin investors.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rolled over to its weakest level since September as the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan reportedly teamed to intervene in currency markets in an attempt to boost the yen versus the greenback. At 154.07 per yen, the dollar is lower by more than 1% on Monday.
Bitcoin to remain range-bound
The lack of bullish follow-through in bitcoin despite dollar weakness has turned traders cautious for the near-term, analysts at Swissblock argued. “Recent price action has reinforced the bearish outlook,” they said in a Monday note.
A decisive breakdown below the $84,500 support level could open the door to a deeper correction toward $74,000, they warned. Still, they flagged that if this support holds while risk metrics cool off, it could offer a compelling entry point for bulls.
Bitfinex analysts echoed the cautious tone, noting BTC is likely to remain range-bound between $85,000 and $94,500. They also pointed to shifts in the options market, with traders responding tactically to short-term risks without pricing in longer-term volatility.
That means traders are “pricing transitory risk rather than a sustained disruption to market structure,” the analysts wrote in a Monday note.
Adding to the pressure is persistent selling from spot bitcoin ETFs. Cumulative outflows exceeded $1.3 billion over the past week, pointing to a lack of risk appetite among investors.
Government shutdown risk for crypto legislation
Schwab director of crypto research and strategy, Jim Ferraioli, sees little reason to expect a sustained move beyond current levels without a pickup in metrics such as on-chain activity, ETF flows or derivatives positioning and miner participation.
A more significant catalyst, according to him, is the passage of the Clarity Act, but that could be delayed by the potential for a government shutdown. Until the legislation is passed, he expects narrow trading between the low $80,000s and mid-$90,000s, as major institutional players will remain on the sidelines.