The broader market continues to defy mainstream expectations.
To start, markets had been pricing in a “long-awaited” Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Instead, the Court once again delayed its decision, catching expectations off guard.
The result? Bitcoin [BTC] rallied 1.65%, pushing back toward the $97k mark at press time.
Notably, this marks the first retest of $97k since BTC lost the level two months ago. In short, macro volatility had clearly tilted in favor of the bulls.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Naturally, the rally sparked another short squeeze, wiping out $275 million in short positions across the market. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index jumped, coming just six points shy of entering the “greed” zone.
However, looking back at market expectations, it wasn’t just the Supreme Court delay that caught traders off guard. The latest PPI report also came in hotter than expected, registering 3% versus the anticipated 2.7%.
As a result, Bitcoin’s current rally finds itself at a crossroads.
The delay pushed BTC higher, but fading rate-cut expectations are starting to weigh. With the FOMC less than two weeks away, the question is, is this breakout real or just another “fakeout” ahead of a liquidation sweep?
Bitcoin rebounds as macro and micro drivers align
Given the recent volatility, it’s worth breaking down BTC’s latest rebound.
Technically, BTC has been consolidating below the $97k range for the past two months. In this context, its latest rebound is being interpreted as a recovery after a corrective phase rather than the start of a new uptrend.
Put simply, the move was fueled by a mix of spot ETF flows, all happening in a “temporarily” stable macro environment. While this pushed Bitcoin higher, it’s still range-bound until these drivers either strengthen or fade.
Source: CrytpoQuant
In short, this reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads.
Bitcoin retested $97k as micro and macro drivers came together. The Supreme Court delay sparked a risk-on shift, while ETFs recorded $840 million in total inflows, bringing demand back to pre-October crash levels.
However, in a market where flows are moving in step with the macro setup, the question is: What happens when the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts, and the Supreme Court delay finally clears? A BTC cascade can’t be ruled out.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin retested $97k as spot demand, ETF inflows, fueled by a Supreme Court delay and temporarily stable macro conditions.
- With PPI hotter than expected and the FOMC less than two weeks away, the key question is whether this breakout is real or a “fakeout,” leaving a BTC cascade possible.