After years of sharp ups and downs, many crypto investors are still waiting for the kind of bull run that feels truly explosive. According to macro researcher Jesse Eckel, that moment may not arrive in 2025 — but in 2026.
Instead of focusing on short-term price charts, Eckel looks at big economic signals like liquidity, interest rates, and business activity. From that angle, he says the crypto market is just coming out of its toughest phase and may be setting up for something much bigger.
The Four-Year Cycle May No Longer Apply
Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle has guided traders for more than a decade. Under that model, markets usually peak one year after a halving and then fall sharply. But Eckel says this framework may be outdated.
He argues that past bull markets didn’t happen simply because of halving events. They happened when money was flowing freely and the economy was expanding. Without those conditions, price cycles lose their predictive power.
The Economy Has Been Holding Crypto Back
One of the reasons crypto has struggled recently is weak economic momentum. Business activity has barely stayed in growth territory, and that has limited demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Eckel points out that the past few years have been highly unusual. Economic growth has been unusually flat, creating an environment where strong and sustained rallies were difficult to maintain.
Liquidity Is the Real Driver
Every big crypto bull run, including Bitcoin’s early years and the massive rally after COVID, followed periods of heavy liquidity injection by central banks. When money is easy, risk assets tend to thrive.
That changed when central banks launched the fastest interest-rate hiking cycle in decades. Crypto, along with stocks, felt the pressure. According to Eckel, that tightening phase is now largely over.
Why 2026 Looks More Promising
With rate hikes stopped and easing already beginning, financial conditions are slowly shifting. Pressure inside the system is building, and policymakers may be forced to loosen conditions further.
Eckel said this transition sets the stage for a stronger crypto market, especially for altcoins, starting in 2026. If liquidity expands and economic activity improves, the market could finally see the kind of broad-based rally many expected earlier.
After a long and difficult stretch, the message is clear: the next major crypto chapter may still be ahead, and patience could be rewarded.