A macro analyst is detailing what he says is a strong argument for a Bitcoin bear market.
In a new YouTube update, Luke Gromen says he does not think “nuclear printing”, or extreme money creation by governments and central banks, will happen next year.
“The economy is highly levered as we’ve talked about ad nauseum and everybody knows Bitcoin as the last functioning smoke alarm of liquidity is the equity crunch. Bitcoin’s the equity crunch and since the deflationary pressures of AI and robotics are exponential, as Jeff Booth has has brilliantly pointed out many times, anything less than nuclear printing is effectively tightening.
It won’t be enough to offset the exponential deflation that will manifest aggressively as the equity crunch falling in price, Bitcoin falling in price. When you then add in that US tech is starting to have some issues around uh capital costs, AI supply chain grid constraints, etc. and some Chinese competition in certain cases. And the fact that Bitcoin trades like a high beta tech stock uh when you add that factor in, that is in essence those two why we are near-term negative on Bitcoin. We do not think nuclear printing is coming in 2026.”
However, the macro guru also says that BTC is a safe bet long term.
“Now to be clear, I still love Bitcoin long term. I just think that deflation I still think that deflation is going to lead to a crisis and I still think there will be nuclear printing in response to that crisis at some point. But there’s an order of operations here that I was uh quite honestly wrong about up until about a month and a half ago, a month ago when we went negative on Bitcoin. in terms of I thought they would be quicker with the response and they haven’t been and I don’t think they’re going to be. So my view is that I’ll be able to buy back the Bitcoin I sold uh cheaper. Maybe I’ll be wrong. Maybe I’ll be have been way too cute.
But this Bitcoin is the equity tranch in a highly leveraged system that is going seeing deflationary pressures from AI and robotics that are exponentially growing. I don’t think there’s a lot of people looking at it that way yet. And I think they’re going to be looking at it that way over the next few months.”
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