Key Takeaways
What supports Bitcoin’s potential path to $150,000?
The VCDD and SOPR metrics show strong support and resistance zones that could guide upward momentum.
Is Bitcoin’s traditional market cycle changing?
Institutional adoption may be extending cycle durations, suggesting the bull run could still be ahead.
Bitcoin [BTC] experienced a turbulent October so far, oscillating between new highs and notable lows. However, this volatility doesn’t necessarily signal the start of a bear market.
Data points to renewed interest building in the market, and in fact, Bitcoin could surpass “cycle” expectations in the days ahead.
The path toward $150,000
Bitcoin’s path to $150,000 remains plausible, based on the relationship between Value Coin-Days Destroyed (VCDD) and the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which fluctuates within defined zones.
This metric involves four key zones, but two are central to this analysis: Gamma + Epsilon—the long-term holder (LTH) threshold; Delta + Epsilon—the short-term holder (STH) threshold.
Soucre: Alphractal
The LTH level currently lies around $147,937, serving as a resistance zone where upward momentum often meets a bearish correction. Meanwhile, the STH level around $92,902 acts as a key support range, historically triggering price surges whenever tested.
Throughout this cycle, Bitcoin has oscillated between these two levels. Recently, the price has trended toward the STH support region.
A strong reaction from this level could push Bitcoin toward the higher LTH threshold as renewed capital flows into the market. However, a break below the short-term threshold could trigger another price decline before any recovery.
What tendency is likely to hold?
AMBCrypto analyzed key market signals to assess Bitcoin’s potential movement if it revisits the STH level.
The Binary CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) metric suggests a mild bearish outlook as some large holders move their coins—potentially for sale.
The CDD reading of 1 indicates that these investors have recently transferred their tokens, hinting at short-term selling activity.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, analysis of the Net Realized Profit/Loss metric shows that the recent sell-offs were far from capitulation levels.
Blockchain analytics firm Swissblock confirmed the fading selling pressure, noting:
“The upcoming inflation data could ignite short-term volatility, yet selling pressure typically eases once the data is digested.”
Is Bitcoin’s traditional cycle ending?
Recent data indicates that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle could be nearing an end. The Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that institutional adoption has reshaped Bitcoin’s cyclic behavior as it evolves into a global asset.
The market analyst known by the pseudonym Arc Physicist explained:
“If Bitcoin is indeed evolving into a global asset, we might expect cycles to extend in duration. The higher support level [the LTH threshold] holding firm thus far may indicate that the true bull run has yet to begin.”
For now, with selling pressure cooling and no signs of market capitulation, a potential rally for Bitcoin still appears likely.