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Home»Analysis»96% of older Bitcoin being sent to exchanges is now underwater
Analysis

96% of older Bitcoin being sent to exchanges is now underwater

November 11, 2026No Comments3 Mins Read
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Bitcoin’s long-term holding cohort sent about 5,950 BTC to exchanges below estimated acquisition cost on Nov. 10. Underwater coins dominated this cohort’s deposits, even as the volume arriving below cost fell from the previous day.

The loss-inflow series from analytics provider CoinGlass showed a 29.22% daily decline. Its total cohort inflows reached 6,182.67 BTC, including 232.72 BTC arriving above cost. Below-cost coins therefore accounted for about 96% of older-holder exchange deposits that day.

Older-holder Bitcoin deposits were mostly below cost on November 10, 2026A proportional bar shows the below-cost share of 6182.67 BTC in total long-term-holder exchange deposits. Possible subsequent uses are shown without weights. NOV. 10, 2026 · LONG-TERM HOLDER COHORT 6,182.67 BTC Total arriving at exchanges −29.22% Below-cost volume vs. prior day 5,949.95 BTC Below estimated cost 232.72 BTC Above estimated cost 96% of this cohort’s deposits arrived below estimated cost Exchange arrival is observed. The next use is not. Possible uses · branches do not represent measured shares TradingCollateralCustodySettlement The cohort uses an approximately 155-day holding boundary.
About 96 percent of older-holder deposits arrived below costNovember 10, 2026 cohort inflows and unmeasured possible subsequent uses. The bar encodes deposited BTC shares. NOV. 10, 2026 · OLDER-COIN DEPOSITS 6,182.67 BTC Total arriving at exchanges Below-cost volume: −29.22% daily 5,949.95 BTCBelow cost 232.72 BTCAbove cost 96% of this cohort’s depositsarrived below estimated cost Arrival is observed.The next use is not. Possible uses · shares not measured TradingCollateralCustodySettlement Long-term cohort: around 155 days.

Loss-making deposits dominated this cohort’s exchange arrivals despite the daily decline.

Gross inflows for one cohort, not all Bitcoin or net reserves. Exchange labels and estimated costs affect classification. Deposits do not establish sales.

The deposits represent potential trading supply under loss pressure, but transfers to exchanges do not establish completed sales.

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CoinGlass defines the long-term cohort around a 155-day holding boundary. Its loss-inflow measure counts BTC sent to identified exchange addresses below estimated acquisition cost.

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What older-coin spending shows

A separate profitability measure gives an earlier view of older-coin activity. CoinGlass reports a long-term-holder spent output profit ratio, or LTH-SOPR, of 0.82063 for Nov. 9, below the break-even level of 1.

The ratio compares the aggregate dollar value of older coins when spent with their value at creation. A reading below 1 means those spent coins moved at an aggregate loss. Unlike the deposit figures, this measure covers spending across the network.

Separate trading data also pointed to seller aggression. CryptoSlate reported on Nov. 10 that Glassnode’s Nov. 9 snapshot showed higher spot turnover alongside negative spot cumulative volume delta. Negative spot cumulative volume delta means sell-initiated volume exceeded buy-initiated volume.

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Bitcoin trading picked up, but sellers took the initiative

The next useful signals are whether below-cost deposit volume continues to fall and whether its share of cohort inflows declines. Nov. 10’s smaller flow still carried a predominantly underwater mix, keeping potential supply pressure in focus.

Bitcoin exchanges Older underwater
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