A veteran crypto trader with a history of making accurate Bitcoin calls is unveiling his worst-case price forecast for BTC.
The pseudonymous analyst Dave the Wave tells his 152,300 followers on X that Bitcoin will likely dip just below the lower bound of his logarithmic growth curve (LGC) – a more than 46% decline from its current value – if the market turns bearish.
The LGC is an investing model that aims to forecast Bitcoin’s market cycle highs and lows while filtering out short-term volatility.
“Even though I think $70,000 is likely support, this BTC ‘stress test’ [worst-case scenario] would have it lower.”
Looking at his chart, the analyst suggests Bitcoin could tap the $50,000 level during a corrective phase.
However, the analyst says that Bitcoin may not be plummeting any time soon based on the Moving Average Convergence (MACD), an indicator used to identify changes in the momentum of price.
“BTC price still facing resistance, but support likely to be higher than generally expected [$70,000].
Just as the weekly MACD did not get over-extended to the upside, I doubt it will get over-extended to the downside. A more technical and stable market/non-parabolic.”
He also says that if Bitcoin breaks through resistance at the $110,000 level it would reaffirm a bull market and set the stage for future rallies.
“A technical move through resistances to $110,000 would invalidate the outlook of a continued BTC correction.”
Bitcoin is trading at $92,886 at time of writing, down marginally on the day.
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