Journalist
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Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.
- XLM was trending down and a move below the mid-range could see a loss of more than 10%.
- There was no buying opportunity, but a drop to $0.1 could be worth reassessing.
Stellar lumens [XLM] has suffered losses of almost 12% in the past two weeks. Volatility on November 13 briefly surged XLM to local highs at $0.136. Still, the trend in the lower time frame was bearish.
Over the next two to four weeks, it seemed likely that XLM would experience another price drop. This leg down would be almost 14%. This was partly because XLM did not experience excessive gains, unlike many other altcoins.
Was XLM a big laggard in the recent rally?
Source: XLM/USDT on TradingView
Measured from October 19 to November 15, the market capitalization of altcoins grew by 38%. During the same period, XLM only gained 32% at its peak on November 7. Since then, XLM has been on a downward trend.
With Bitcoin [BTC] If sentiment cannot break past the $38,000 mark, sentiment could start to cool. This could cause XLM to fall lower. Over the past two months, the token has traded within a range stretching from $0.135 to $0.101.
At the time of writing, XLM was at the mid-level of $0.118. A move below $0.118 would likely see prices slide towards the $0.1 support zone.
The RSI was at 47 and the drop below the neutral 50 on the daily chart was an early sign that momentum was shifting bearish.
The On-Balance Volume also decreased in recent days. On the other hand, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) continued to indicate strong capital inflows.
Social sentiment has taken a hit in addition to prices
Source: Santiment
One-week volatility has been on a downward trend since late October. The weighted social sentiment has been predominantly negative in recent months. However, there were brief upticks in sentiment.
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These volatile shifts were not enough to justify expectations of price increases. The country’s social dominance peaked for two months on November 1, but has since declined.
Development activity has been good, so investors have nothing to worry about on that front, just the price action during a mini altseason.