Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.
Mid-April, Cardano [ADA] facing rejection from the $0.46 highs. The bulls’ inability to defend the $0.4 support meant that the price has moved lower over the past month. This changed last week.
The market structure on the daily time frame was bearish but recently turned to bullish. But worryingly for the bulls, a good chunk of May was spent defending the $0.36 support. This did not indicate strong buyers.
Cardano has so far defended the 61.8% retracement level
Source: ADA/USDT on TradingView
This break in market structure occurred on May 28, when ADA bulls forced a daily session to close at $0.383, above the recent low of $0.3807. Still, the volume bars showed that trading volume was barely average.
In addition, the OBV has been limping along a support line since January. This line has been retested several times in 2023 by the OBV, but at the time of writing, it appeared to be on the verge of sinking lower.
The fact that the OBV was slowly declining highlighted the lack of demand behind Cardano. Therefore, while the $0.36 Fibonacci retracement level was defended in May, a Cardano rally was not yet likely.
Reinforcing this possibility, the RSI has struggled to climb above the neutral 50 since mid-April. This showed that bearish momentum was prevailing, although momentum was neutral at the time of writing.
The rising average coin age could inspire confidence among Cardano investors
Source: Sanitation
The development activity behind Cardano has remained stable in recent months. Apart from the sharp drop at the turn of the year, this activity has not experienced any major upward or downward swings. This would be viewed in a positive light by long-term ADA holders.
Realistic or not, here is the market cap of ADA in terms of BTC
The average coin age of the token also moved up in May, despite the lackluster price action. The absence of a trend in May also pushed the 90-day MVRV ratio into negative territory.
The conclusion is that holders have a small unrealized loss, but the rising average coin age boded well. Bitcoin [BTC] should rise on the price charts to reinforce bullish sentiment in the market, which could then lead to Cardano’s rally. But investors should also be prepared for a drop below the $0.36 support for ADA.
