Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.
- UNI rose 14%, reversing the heavy losses of June 10.
- H4’s market structure was bearish at the time of writing.
from Uniswap [UNI] prolonged decline in the first half of June crushed the January lows and the post-FTX level of $4,710. But the DEX (Decentralized Exchange) token dropped to $3,633 and sparked a strong rebound, rising 14% to around $4.43 at the time of writing.
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UNI price action reversed slightly after rejection, just below the post-FTX level of $4,710. In the meantime, Bitcoin [BTC] temporarily crossed the $26.6k mark but was not yet bullish on the higher time frame.
Will the 50% Fib Level Save Bulls?
Source: UNI/USDT on TradingView
A Fibonacci retracement tool (yellow) was placed between the late May swing high and the June low on the 4-hour chart. The 61.8% Fib level of $4.61, below the post-FTX level, has been a key resistance in recent days.
The 38.2% Fib ($4.24) and 50% ($4.42) Fib levels acted as immediate support levels during the recent pullbacks of the recovery period. At the time of writing, UNI reached the 50% Fib level ($4.42) and could break it if BTC drops below $26.6k.
Thus, sellers must remove the hurdles at 38.2% Fib ($4.24) and 50% ($4.42) Fib levels to extend profits to $4.00 (23.6% Fib level) .
An upward move could be possible if UNI turns bullish by crossing the $4,710 post-FTX level and the 78.6% Fib level ($4.87).
Meanwhile, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) fell below 50, and OBV (On Balance Volume) registered a pullback, suggesting a drop in buying pressure and demand.
The futures market is bearish
Source: Coinglass
Open interest rates (OI) and the number of UNI-linked futures contracts plummeted between June 10 and June 12. It fell from >$43 million on June 10 to about $31 million on June 12. In addition, it peaked at $39 million on June 15 before dropping again.
How many Worth 1,10,100 UNIs today?
Falling OI shows growing bearish sentiment in the futures market in the second half of June.
In addition, Uniswap’s Exchange Long/Short ratio confirmed the above conclusion, with shorts dominant at 53.95% in a 4-hour time frame. The negative derivative metrics may slow down the prospects of the H4 structure turning bullish.
Source: Coinglass
