Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart released their latest approval opportunities in 2025 for Spot Altcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), where XRP receives the lowest probability.
According to the latest estimates, Litecoin (LTC) with a chance of approval of 90%, followed by Dogecoin (doge) by 75% and Solana (SOL) at 70% – XRP -paths The others with a chance of 65% of approval.
Balchunas marked:
“Take into account all this stuff (except Litecoin that was always high) was <5% prior to the election. So these are really good opportunities relatively speaking and will probably grow the more we see these go through the typical process. "
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Recently recognized The 19B-4 forms of Litecoin ETF, which increase their approval opportunities. Balchunas recently stated That LTC products check ‘all subjects’, no reason for the SEC to withdraw the archives.
Moreover, the analysts believe that Litecoin is probably considered a raw material, because it is a fork of Bitcoin that carries the same proof-of-work consensus algorithm and has not performed a presale.
The same applies to doge, which according to the analysts will also be considered a raw material as a raw material, probably for the same reason as LTC and Bitcoin (BTC). In the meantime, the SEC SOL and XRP labeled as effects in different lawsuits.
This is probably the reason why Doge ETF’s have 5% higher chances of approval than Solana, even though the SEC does not recognize the 19B-4 forms of Doge Funds as Van de Pers.
Significant changes
However, the analysts noted that the Crypto Task Force of Commissioner Hester Peirce could assess the classification of the SEC of XRP and Sol as effects by the end of 2025. This can significantly change the chance of the ETFs related to these cryptos approved.
Regarding the attention of the SEC for the registrations, Seyffart said that both XRP and Doge ETFs will probably be recognized this week.
In the meantime, Balchunas said that although their current analysis only includes 1933 ACT reports, comparable to BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF, alternative structures such as 40 ACT-Futures-based ETFs or Cayman-Subsidiaire Funds can also arise.
With increasing pressure on the SEC to offer the clarity of the regulations and the growing institutional demand for crypto investment products, 2025 could mark a substantial turning point for Spot Alcoin ETFs.
Seyffart and Balchunas already have predict A “Gulf of Crypto ETFs” this year due to a more favorable regulatory landscape in the US under the current administration.
