The most important global strategist of JPMorgan Asset Management, David Kelly, offers his views on the American stock market in the midst of a rally that the S&P 500 index has recovered since the US on the import on 2 April.
In a new interview about Bloomberg, Kelly out The recent rally of the stock market is exaggerated in view of the economic outlook in the short and medium term of the US.
“We have made a sort of return on rates here, but we still end with a higher rate percentage than we had in the beginning. I think we have slower economic growth in the long term. In some respects the care provider is stronger than the decline and I think it is a bit exaggerated.
So I would still warn people that in the longer term the enormous premium that the US stock prices have in the rest of the world is probably not justified …
… I think it’s too early to be really bullish about shares because of the tax stimulus, because you know that we are talking about a complete employment economy where the FED will have less reason to cut. “
According to the JPMorgan strategist, international shares will probably offer a better return for the near future compared to US shares.
“Yes, the US stock market has almost done a tour-to-date tour, but European shares have risen very strongly. International shares in general have risen the year considerably for the year. And the dollar has fallen.
I think that will continue, because we will still end with important rates at the end of all this, although we see, you know, it comes down. We are going to end with higher deficits, we will end with lower immigration, probably lower economic growth … in the short to medium term.
Nothing is really Pro-VS. I think the US will do well. But it deserves to be 50% in terms of the rest of the world in terms of [price-to-earnings] PE ratio? “
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_1W_VGXNJO
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