This article is available in Spanish.
Crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) posits a strong bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2024. Using historical data, Astronomer offers a analysis via X, which suggests an 82% probability of an ultra bullish trend based on Bitcoin’s September performance.
The crypto analyst opens his analysis by highlighting Bitcoin’s unexpected positive performance in September. “September is almost coming to an end and to the surprise of the general public, it looks like it is going to be green (in the long term), with the potential to become the greenest September in 2024, supporting our breakthrough thesis that we have been working on for some time working on now,” he writes.
While delving into market sentiment, Astronomer finds a significant discrepancy between public perception and actual market positions. “And although we are no longer the only ones on the full bull position, data is and will remain data. And after close inspection, despite the speaking and analysis posts, most are not yet positioned, have taken profits too early or will cheer for dips and say they are a gift for wanting one,” he explained.
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He elaborates on the sentiment within closed circles: “This observation comes not only from public posts or Twitter, but also from the range of paid groups that are participated in to conduct these analyses. Sharing names or details is not allowed, but most groups are indeed long and have taken profits early, are looking for a listing, or are short. So the hand of the market seems to be working.”
82% chance Bitcoin will be bullish
The astronomer’s bullish thesis is based on historical data, specifically the cyclical nature of the Bitcoin price. “The data analysis here is quite simple: every time BTC had a green September, it was followed by as many as three green months afterwards, i.e. a green October, November and December. And this has happened 3/3 times since BTC was founded,” he claims, indicating a strong seasonal pattern.
However, he is quick to temper this with criticism of his methodology, admitting the potential pitfalls of low-data sampling: “Like I said, I’m not the biggest fan of seasonality and our analysis only has three data points, which we only have one confidence of 67% to claim that the next three months will indeed be green (low data fallacy). But to add significance, due to the binary nature of bullish/bearish, there is also exclusivity to the data: if September is not green, then the fourth quarter has not been green every month.”
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He further refines his statement: “So by including the exclusivity, a more general and easier to interpret claim, using more data points, is this: ‘September’s direction set the overall direction of the fourth quarter and if September is green and not red, a bullish (not bearish) Q4 followed 9 out of 11 times. So if September closes above $59,000, there is an 82% chance that the fourth quarter will be bullish.”
The prediction sparked a dialogue within the community. One user @pieceofsheet99 responded skeptically, suggesting the possibility of an unexpected downturn: “If September turned out to be green to everyone’s surprise, October could also turn out to be red to everyone’s surprise.” The astronomer responded, reaffirming his confidence in historical trends: “Indeed, but that is not what we have typically seen. So personally, as always, I stick to the dates.”
The astronomer’s analysis ends on a note of strategic optimism, emphasizing the importance of tuning into market dynamics and historical patterns rather than speculative impulses. “How optimistic? We’ll see (time is more important than price), but it’s not about planning your retirement and making a quick buck. It’s about being on the right side of the trade, again and again, again and again, enjoying the market without stress and not having too many regrets by losing money or being sidelined (enjoying the process ). And so you ultimately reach your goals (quite quickly).”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $64,622.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
