Anticipation surrounding a possible approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF is still high among crypto investors. This expectation has been one of the main drivers of the price rally that has taken place over the past two months.
In spite of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postpone his decision multiple spot ETF applicationsIndustry experts remain very positive that the regulator is on the verge of approving the first Spot Bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin Spot ETF coming in January 2024
Many experts have revised their expectations about if and when the SEC would approve a Spot Bitcoin ETF. Initially expectations were low. But as time has gone by, expectations have risen rapidly and analysts are catching up Matrix gate are part of the camp that believes a Spot Bitcoin ETF is on the way.
In a report published on Monday, December 18, Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, reveals a 95% chance that a Spot BTC ETF will be approved in January 2024. January is the deadline for most of the 13 filings so far, and Thielen expects the SEC to approve a spot ETF on January 10.
The report points out that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has reviewed its S-1 filing with the SEC. Here, the regulator had given the asset manager instructions, including monitoring unusual price movements, storing all private keys in cold storage and having procedures in place in case there are Bitcoin forks.
Additionally, the SEC also responded to Franklin-Templeton’s filing in November, despite having until January to do so. This move, the analyst said, “gave the impression that the SEC is lining up all issuers to get approval before January 10, 2024.”
Thielen explains the importance of the meeting that the regulator had with BlackRocksaying, “The SEC has never actively addressed potential ETF issues and appears to have given the same instructions to all ETF issuers with whom it conducted discussions.”
BTC price shows high level of volatility | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
BTC price expectations after approvals
With Matrixport expecting the approvals to happen in January, the analyst also expressed his price expectations for when this will happen. Thielen expects Bitcoin to rise again once this happens and as a result, the price could rise as much as $50,000 in the first quarter of 2024.
“We expect this correction to turn into another surge in Bitcoin prices after Christmas as investors take advantage of the recent correction and position themselves for the likely Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval period – January 8 to January 10, 2024,” the analyst said, referring to the price drop that Bitcoin has registered over the past week.
As for Grayscale, the analyst does not believe the SEC would allow a conversion of the Bitcoin trust into a Spot ETF on January 10. However, they do expect that 20% of bullion demand will move to Spot Bitcoin ETFs following the approvals. .
Featured image from Atlantic Council, chart from Tradingview.com
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