- The altseason’s chances took a setback after the launch of TRUMP.
- Bitcoin making new highs would likely mean more capital that could be converted into altcoins.
The altcoin season has not started yet. In fact, the likelihood of this happening has decreased over the past month, as the altcoin seasonal index chart and other statistics clearly show.
The conditions were not favorable for the altcoins and Bitcoin [BTC] has also struggled to establish an upward trend in recent weeks.
January and December 2024 were the last two times the altcoin seasonal value rose above 75. The index uses the performance of the top 50 crypto assets (excluding stablecoins) and their 90-day performance against BTC.
Over the past 48 hours, the altcoin situation has deteriorated. The launch of the official Trump [TRUMP] memecoin seemed to suck the liquidity out of the market. The market capitalization reached almost $19 billion just a day after launch.
Despite the 34% drop in the last few hours, the fully diluted value (FDV) was still $58 billion as only 20% of the total supply was in circulation.
The quick gains convinced altcoin holders to sell at least some of their holdings to buy into the new craze. This could put a lot of eyes on the world crypto market but also makes the entire industry look like a get-rich-quick scheme.
Chance of an altseason in Q1 2025
Source: BTC.D on TradingView
The Bitcoin Dominance chart plots BTC’s share of the total crypto market capitalization in percentage terms. An increase in BTC.D means that BTC is making more gains (in market cap) than the alts, and a downward trend means that altcoins are dominant.
In November, BTC.D saw a sharp rejection of just above 60.5%. It reached 55% but started to reverse and move higher in December and January.
However, the recent uptrend has been in a long-term resistance zone around 60%. Therefore, a BTC.D rejection of 60.5% alongside rising altcoin prices, also known as altseason, was possible in the coming months.
Source: TOTAL3 on TradingView
The market capitalization of altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) has been fixed within a certain bandwidth since December. At TRUMP’s launch, TOTAL3 was rejected from the highest levels in the range.
In the hours before publication, BTC’s 6.8% rise from $101.3k to $108.2k has pushed altcoins to post gains.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2025-26
A TOTAL3 breakout out of range and BTC.D’s downtrend would be signs that the altseason was underway.
Until then, holders must maintain their convictions. Research into the tokens owned can strengthen this belief.
