- The sharp fall in Solana in Q1 has expressed concern about the future direction of the active.
- Without a clear catalyst for recovery can be further on the table.
Solana [SOL] At the beginning of 2025 with a tough Q1, 34% fell and lost $ 100 billion in market capitalization, with all the profit from the hype before the elections.
Now, back to its layer in September 2024, will Q2 be different, or is the risk that sale with high deployment is still too strong?
The risk of capitulation grows as FOMO fades
Solana has, like a lot of assets with a high cap, struggled through a combination of macro and micro-economic factors. However, the decline of Q1 stands out as one of the most serious under large assets.
From a technical perspective, the 1D price card from Solana lacks clear support levels. Without a strong bullish demand at key levels, it is actively running with a high risk of further decrease, especially if the swing lentiment weakens.
At the time of writing, Solana has reached a high of two years, with only 32% of the profit profit. This imbalance increases the chance of a sale, because holders of under water are more inclined to capitulate.
The net non-realized profit and loss (NUPL) Metriek indicates that holders have been introduced a capitulation phase in the short term (STH). This could cause a wave of sale.
If the wider market does not recover quickly, the Solana network can experience considerable liquidity outings.
Source: Glassnode
Historically, Solana has only found a local soil when it enters the Hope/Fear phase, where FOMO starts and the trust of the market returns. Without this shift, Sell-Side Print could continue and the risk of further decline remains.
As an addition to the Bearish Outlook, the SOL/BTC purple erased its winnings from the middle of March, with a sharp weekly decline.
At the time of the press, the MACD was about to flip bearish, indicating that Sol could soon test his support of $ 115.
Can Solana turn it around in Q2?
Solana started strong Q1, with new addresses that increase to 8 million mid -January, but the momentum has fallen sharply and the count has fallen to a lowest point in six months of only 312K.
Source: Glassnode
Earlier in the quarter, Solana saw impressive spikes Setting up and Dex volumeSignaling healthy investor involvement. Both statistics have since fallen considerably and fall far below them before the elections.
With rising capitulation fears and a lack of place retaining, Solana runs the risk of losing $ 115 support.
Unless there is a shift in sentiment or a catalyst to fill the question, expecting a bullish Q2 always seems to be far -fetched.
