Here’s how the current Bitcoin rally compares to the previous ones in terms of the uptakes it’s experienced so far.
The current Bitcoin rally has seen a peak drop of -18.6% so far
In a recent tweet, the on-chain analytics company Glasnode compared the last Bitcoin rally to that in the cryptocurrency’s entire history.
Generally, rallies are compared using metrics such as the percentage of price increases recorded during the rallies or the amount of time they lasted (which can be measured in terms of the blocks produced, as is done when looking at cycles in terms of halves). Here, however, Glassnode has taken a different approach that offers a new perspective on these rallies.
The basis of comparison between the price increases here are the draws that each of them has experienced across their span. Note that these recordings should not be confused with the cyclical recordings used to measure how the price has fallen since the top of the bull run.
The withdrawals in question are the obstacles that the cryptocurrency encountered while the rallies were still underway, and thus are the obstacles that the coin managed to overcome in the end.
Here’s a chart that shows the rate of withdrawal each of the historic bull markets has experienced, as well as where the current rally stands compared to them:
Looks like the value of the metric hasn't been too high for the latest rally so far | Source: Glassnode on Twitter
The five bull rallies here are as follows: genesis to 2011 (the very first rally), 2011-2013, 2015-2017, 2018-2021 (the last rally), and cycle 2022+ (the ongoing one).
The analysis company here has taken the bottom of each of the bear markets as the start of the next bull rallies. This means that parts of the cycle that some might not consider part of proper running of the bulls are also included.
The prime example of this is the April 2019 rally, which is often thought of as its own thing, but is clubbed with the latest Bitcoin bull market in the chart above.
The chart shows that the deepest drop during the first bull market was about -49.4%. The next run, the bull from 2011 to 2013, experienced an even bigger obstacle of a nosedive of -71.2% at the midway point.
The next one (2015-2017) then saw only a -36% withdrawal, but the withdrawal had risen again to -62.6% for the run that followed (i.e. the last bull market).
So far in the 2022+ Bitcoin bull market (which would only be considered a bull market if the November 2022 low really was the cyclical bottom), the deepest drop seen so far is the March 2023 plunge from -18 .6%.
Clearly, the pullback in the current rally has so far been significantly smaller than what historical bull markets have faced. If the pattern of previous runs held any weight, it would mean that the current bull market should have even more growth potential.
BTC price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,900, down 2% over the past week.
BTC has been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com
