Stephan Livera, an esteemed host of his eponymous podcast and head of education at Swan Bitcoin, has now done so as long as the crypto community with projections for Bitcoin’s future trajectory. This week, Bitcoin staged a rally that took the price to $35,000, marking the highest point since May 2022.
However, amid the favorable environment surrounding a possible Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approval and institutional adoption, Livera argues that this surge is merely the harbinger of a much bigger bull run.
The potential boost: a Spot Bitcoin ETF
Approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could be a game-changer for Bitcoin valuation, according to Livera. Speaking to Michelle Makori, Editor-in-Chief of Kitco News, during the Pacific Bitcoin Festival, Livera highlighted the potential ripple effects of such an endorsement.
While rumors indicate that ETF approval is on the horizon by the end of this year, Livera deviates from this sentiment. Livera expects this historic event to more likely occur in 2024 Head of Education at Swan Bitcoin commented:
Although many experts predict that [a spot Bitcoin ETF] will come in three to six months, I don’t believe it will happen this year. Next year is the most likely scenario… in the first or second quarter of 2024, which would coincide with the halving cycle, expected in April.
In particular, a major event such as the halving cycle will impact Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Historically, this event – where miners’ reward for adding new blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain is cut in half – has driven price shifts.
The next cycle will set the block reward at 3,125 BTC. This, combined with the potential adoption of spot ETFs, could catalyze increased interest and investment inflows into Bitcoin, according to Livera.
Expected peaks and valleys: the BTC landscape
Livera provides a roadmap of Bitcoin’s possible price trajectory. Swan Bitcoin’s head of education predicts a stabilization around $30,000 soon, with a potential escalation towards $40,000 as we approach next year’s halving.
But the real fireworks could start after the halving, which would herald a wild bull run. Livera explained the historical trends and shared:
Historically, what we have seen around the halving is a small increase in the halving, and then a small sell-off. Six to twelve months later the real crazy bull run happens and at that point you get a 10x or 20x boost in the Bitcoin price.
This extrapolation by Livera culminates in a remarkable forecast for the end of 2024 – a bold increase that, according to the expert, may reach roughly $500,000 in 2025 or early 2026.
However, the climb could be accompanied by a steep descent. Livera draws parallels to gold, saying Bitcoin could potentially mimic its valuation range. Livera added, highlighting the volatility of the crypto domain:
It is entirely possible that Bitcoin will become close to gold, and that would imply a price close to $500,000. As is a tradition in this sector, we will probably end up with a bottom line, followed by an 80% decline. So it could go to $500,000 and then crash to $100,000.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
