This article is available in Spanish.
Sina, a professor, consultant and co-founder and COO of 21stCapital.com, predicts that Bitcoin’s price could rise to $285,000 by the end of 2025 in a new analysis shared on X. Using a quantile regression model, Sina has identified different phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle.
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The model identifies the Cold Zone (<33%) as a price range between $55,000 and $85,000. This zone represents the lowest possible range towards the end of 2025 and suggests a period ideal for 'aggressive accumulation'.
The Warm Zone (33-66%), ranging from $85,000 to $136,000, marks a period when the market is gaining momentum and mainstream attention is increasing. During this phase, rapid price growth is expected as the ‘train leaves the station’. Here, Sina recommends a standard accumulation strategy, such as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), to steadily expand holdings.
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The most critical phase, the Hot Zone (>66%), ranges from $136,000 to $285,000. This zone is characterized by increased volatility and significant price swings as mass adoption spikes and leveraged positions take over.
While there is significant room for upside, the risk of reversals is escalating quickly. Sina advises investors to either hold and enjoy potential gains or consider gradually exiting positions based on risk assessments, especially as historical highs are in the 90th to 99th quantile range. Notably, the 90th quantile starts at $211,000.
What surprises Sina is how these 33% quantile ranges align seamlessly with Bitcoin’s historical phase transitions. He notes that Bitcoin tends to spend exactly a third of its time in each zone before moving on to the next, almost like clockwork. This pattern means that most of the bear market occurs below the 33% quantile, while the bull market euphoria begins above the 66% quantile.
Renowned crypto analyst PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) acknowledged Sina’s model, noting that it is a “perfect explanation – super clear.” Sina, in turn, credited PlanC for the foundational work that influenced its own model.
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PlanC recently did that too updated its “Power Law Probability Model,” which predicts Bitcoin prices ranging from $189,733 to $245,264 for the 97% to 99.9% quantile and $145,182 to $189,733 for the 90% to 97% quantile. He emphasizes that despite appearances, the underlying data follows a power-law relationship regardless of how it is plotted – whether linear, log-linear, or log-log.
“The data follows a log-log relationship with quantile regressions, while the rainbow graph uses logarithmic regression with a log-linear relationship. […] I don’t ‘draw’ these lines. These are quantile regressions of the log of price versus time, based on all the data we have so far,” he explains.
To contextualize the predictive capabilities of the model, PlanC delves deeper into the meaning of different quantiles. The 99.9% quantile means that the price has been above this limit only 0.1% of the time, which amounts to only one day in 1000 days – a very rare occurrence. The 99% quantile indicates that the price has crossed this line 1% of the time, or one day in 100 days, which is also considered rare. Conversely, the 0.1% quantile reflects that the price has fallen below this line only 0.1% of the time.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $67,121.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
