A generally followed economist believes that President Trump’s trade war can cause conditions that can catalyze a repetition of 2008.
Economist Alex Krüger tells his 208,600 followers on the social media platform X that create the rates of Trump conditions that can cause a new credit crisis when borrowers do not have easy access to credit despite their willingness to pay interest.
Krüger out That as soon as lenders lose the confidence to spend new guilt because of an uncertain macro-economic background, the S&P 500 could witness a collapse in 2008 style.
“This is what the Berenmarkt of 2008 looked like, -50% in one year. Note the extensive number of extremely positive news from October. Sometimes increasing liquidity is not sufficient.
As soon as the credit markets break, it is very difficult to stop the snowball.
We may be two tweets to go from that direction. Europe revenge takes it in kind and Trump loses it.
Naturally, [we] Would need more than to have such a long -term Bear market. 2008 was a credit crisis, which is not the case now.
But a trade war can cause a credit crisis. Stagflation => Consumer spending freezing => blow up companies => blow up banks => death. “
He also believes that Trump’s rates have increased The chance that the US will witness a recession within a year.
“If this continues to escalate, yes, Everything is now possible, that is what has changed in my opinion, there is nothing off the table. “
From the end of Monday, the S&P 500 acts at 5,062 points.
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