One analyst has explained how the worst could be behind us for Bitcoin, and the fourth quarter could bring bullish momentum if history is anything to go by.
The third quarter has historically been the worst time for Bitcoin investors
In a new after on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards talked about how investors are going through the worst time for Bitcoin. Below is the table quoted by the analyst, which breaks down the quarterly returns the cryptocurrency has seen throughout history.
As can be seen, the third quarter of the year has generally been the worst time for Bitcoin throughout history, with an average return for the month of +5% and an average return of -4%.
From perspective, the second worst performing quarter is typically the second quarter, but the average and median returns of +27% and +7% respectively are still significantly better than those of the third quarter.
On the other end of the spectrum is the fourth quarter, the next quarter of the current year. Bitcoin has had its best periods this quarter, with average and median returns of +89% and +57% respectively.
“If you’re still here, congratulations. You’ve endured the worst time of being in Bitcoin,” Edwards says in the post about BTC traders. “The best lies ahead of us.”
Last year, the cryptocurrency experienced an increase of almost 57% during this period. With the third quarter quickly coming to an end, it remains to be seen how the BTC price will perform this time in the fourth quarter.
Speaking of historical patterns, chain analyst Checkmate discussed what the daily price performance distribution looked like in an X-post about the bear and bull markets.
Here is the chart shared by the analyst:
As the chart above shows, about 28% of bear market days saw the asset trend higher than +1%, while about 38% saw it trend down more than -1%. In the remaining 34% of days, the cryptocurrency remained within +1% to -1% of the previous day.
During bullish periods, Bitcoin has witnessed an increase of more than +1% on 33% of days, while 26% recorded a decline of more than -1%. The remaining 41% of the assets are consolidated.
The symmetry between the three types of days is interesting, but what is striking is that the distributions between bear and bull markets are virtually the same.
“Day traders are trying to beat a three-sided coin, where one-third of all days rise, one-third sell off and one-third do nothing,” Checkmate notes.
BTC price
Bitcoin has shown a sudden burst of bullish momentum over the past 24 hours as its price has surged more than 5% to reach the $60,900 level.
