Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or any other advice and is solely the opinion of the author
- BTC has fluctuated between 50-EMA and 100-EMA since May 9.
- Open interest rates remained unchanged; long discouraged.
Bitcoin [BTC] continued to consolidate near $26.6k, with volumes remaining low since the end of March. While the current level could be an accumulation zone, BTC has yet to register a strong rebound, highlighting the battle between bulls and bears at $26.6k.
Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price prediction 2023-24
A recent report stressed that self-custody for both BTC and ETH is on the rise, indicating that investors are betting heavily on a likely upward trend move.
But major price resistance levels await, and here is a strong bearish stronghold for BTC bulls to watch out for on the daily chart.
Will $26.6k and 100-EMA Check Fall Further?
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
The decline from May 6 left a fair value gap (FVG) zone between $27,826 – $28,396 (white). Just below the FVG zone was the 50 EMA of $27.57k (blue line). Above that is the resistance at $28.5k, a major obstacle in the second half of March.
This makes the area a strong bearish stronghold, and bulls need to clear it to gain leverage and dent any prevailing bearish sentiment.
A negative price reaction from the above bearish zone and the subsequent breach of the USD 26.6k support could further weaken BTC’s market structure. The next support levels to the south are the dynamic 100-EMA (yellow) and $25.26k.
However, a daily session close to the bearish stronghold ($28.5k) could see BTC rise and retest recent highs of $29k or $31k. Above these resistance levels, the next resistance level was at $32.4k.
Meanwhile, the RSI was below the mid-range, indicating limited buying pressure. However, the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) was above zero, indicating substantial capital inflows.
BTC open interest rates are stagnant
Source: Coinglass
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Open interest rates for BTC futures have hovered around $11 billion since the second half of April, according to Coinglass data. This shows a neutral position in the futures market over the same period, meaning prices can go either way.
However, Coinglass’ aggregate liquidation data showed that longs were discouraged, with more than $5 million worth of positions, of $9.7 million, having been wrecked in the past 24 hours as of going to press. This reinforces the slightly bearish sentiment in the futures market.
A more nuanced direction could be apparent as of Monday (May 22). The US debt ceiling negotiation is an important development worth following in the coming days as it could affect BTC’s movements.
Source: Coinglass
