Bitcoin’s future comes down to this one question, says Bitwise

US President Donald Trump formally founded a strategic Bitcoin reserve last week – an action that has inflamed both celebration and concern in the industry. The core of this debate is a central question: Will Bitcoin become a geopolitically important global macro assets such as gold, or will it remain a niche possession among Libertarians, Cypherpunks and speculators?

That is the core collection of Bitwise’s newest investor memoWritten by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. With the title “The only question that matters in Bitcoin” and dates from 10 March 2025, the memo underlines how Bitcoin’s long-term perspectives can take or governments worldwide with the United States-it as indispensable enough to continue to build strategic reserves.

The only big question for Bitcoin

In the memo Hougan emphasizes the striking nature of the American government’s decision and writes: ‘Fifteen years after Bitcoin has been created – one and a half decade of spot and skepticism, of people who call it a’ PET Rock ‘and’ Rat Poison Squared ‘ – the US government that will not be sold Bitcoin. ‘

He claims that the approval of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve activa indicates a historic shift: “It is a historic milestone, which will help to push Bitcoin to new of all time high. Congratulations to everyone who believed in this possibility before it was cool. ‘

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Yet markets have not welcomed this announcement uniform. Although the formal recognition of the government seems to strengthen the legitimacy of Bitcoin, it also disappointed some investors who had expected an immediate influx of new government purchases.

Shortly after the spare wieuws was created, the price of Bitcoin fell by 13% compared to its recent high of more than $ 92,000, which fell below $ 80,000 for the first time since November 2024. Hougan points to various contributing factors: broader economic care, a pullback from a stock market, and, crucial, what he calls a “misunderstanding” of the actual state of the government.

“Despite the historic nature of the explanation, Bitcoin has fallen sharply in recent days,” he notes in the memo. Investors had apparently hoped for immediate large -scale purchases from the American treasury. Instead, they learned that the reserve would initially include the existing Bitcoin companies of the government – an estimated 200,000 BTC, worth around $ 16 billion at current prices.

Hougan believes that the negative reaction of the market is unjustified, and emphasizes that only the retention of that 200,000 bitcoin instead of selling them – compared to the prior administration – prohibits a considerable overhang of the market.

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In addition, the new executive order explicitly states: “[T]The secretary of the Treasury and the Minister of Trade will develop strategies for the acquisition of supplementary BTC from the government, provided that such strategies are budget -neutral and do not impose incremental costs on the taxpayers of the United States. “

In his memo Hougan underlines the meaning of the word ‘will’ suggest that it indicates a mandate instead of a mere possibility. Above all, the Memo of Bitwise is on a long -term perspective and is urging investors to concentrate on what Hougan terms “the only question that matters in Bitcoin.” That question is whether Bitcoin becomes important worldwide, related to gold, or whether it remains peripheral.

“If Bitcoin matters worldwide, here is my opinion: it will be an active $ 10-50 trillion, which implies a return of 5x-25x of the current prices. If this is not the case, it will be a footn in history, which bounces around $ 150,000, only supported by a small cohort of Libertarians, Cypherpunks and speculators. There is no in between. Bitcoin is important worldwide or not, “Hougan writes.

From this viewpoint, the choice of the US government to maintain (and possibly expand) its Bitcoin companies is a huge signal for other countries. If, as Hougan suggests, nations such as the Czech Republic, Russia, China, El Salvador and India weigh their own strategic movements in the digital asset room, the US that takes Bitcoin as strategic, she could encourage the example if they want to run further American acquisitions in the front.

Although some investors may have been discouraged by the immediate lack of enormous purchase of the government, the Memo of Bitwise remains optimistic in the light of Bitcoin’s recent volatility. Hougan labels the current price dip as an opportunity for those who see a longer timeline. “I see a large collection meal. This weakness in the short term is a gift, “he concludes.

BTC traded at $ 80.319 at the time of the press.

Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com