- MSTR’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 underscored Bitcoin’s increasing institutional recognition.
- It makes MSTR stock – and indirectly Bitcoin – more sensitive to market volatility.
Microstrategy [MSTR]the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin [BTC]has seen its shares increase sixfold this year, pushing its market capitalization to a whopping $94 billion.
With 423,650 BTC in its coffers, including a hefty 149,880 purchased last month, MSTR is now ready to participate the Nasdaq 100, which is expected to drive further stock gains.
But with Bitcoin hovering around the volatile $100,000 mark, the growing link between MSTR stock and the price of BTC is being put in the spotlight.
Could market turbulence and looming macroeconomic shifts dent MSTR’s valuation, and will the ripple effects shake Bitcoin’s short-term price? The stakes have never been higher.
Assessing how MSTR is connected to Bitcoin
MSTR stock, which reached its all-time high of $473 just two weeks after the election results, was no fluke. With over 400,000 BTC in its reserves, Bitcoin pumps are fueling MSTR’s meteoric rise, delivering daily jumps of over 10% at the right time.
However, the timing of the Nasdaq listing can be difficult. Investors face a dilemma: buy in at a lower price, or has Bitcoin’s peak already passed? While MSTR stock offers retail investors a way to ride the Bitcoin wave, the risk is real: it could backfire if the market is in a recession.
Ultimately it comes down to risk appetite. Do investors view the current market volatility as a short-term trend, or as a long-term trend, making entry too risky because prices may be too high?
This risk was clearly reflected in MSTR’s daily chart. After reaching an all-time high, the longest red candlestick in its history was formed, marking a sharp drop of 16% in one day, sending the price down to a low of $371.
MSTR’s stock valuation is closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance. This connection allows MicroStrategy to do this surpass even the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, which posted a staggering 600% YTD growth.
However, this also highlights the significant risk of fortune being tied to Bitcoin’s volatility.
What happens when risk appetite reaches a plateau?
Despite bullish factors such as market makers targeting new highs, institutions buying dips and speculation about Bitcoin as a reserve, Bitcoin has not broken its all-time high of $104,000, which was reached over a week ago. Trump’s “pro-crypto” stance hasn’t moved it past this goal either.
The pause highlights the market’s hesitation as investors weigh the potential risks. It could just be the calm before the storm.
Looking ahead to 2025, there is increasing buzz that Bitcoin will reach $200,000. However, macroeconomic trends will be crucial in shaping investor sentiment.
The impact on MSTR? Despite the stock’s close ties to Bitcoin’s price action, it remains vulnerable to the same risks as any other stock: fluctuations caused by economic uncertainty and changing government regulations.
An unfavorable monetary policy could quickly dampen investors’ risk appetite. This could lead to a withdrawal of MSTR holdings and put pressure on profit margins.
In such a scenario, MSTR may have no choice but to lose some of its Bitcoin reserves.
Source: CryptoQuant
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2024-25
MicroStrategy currently has a record amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, raising the stakes significantly. Therefore, the consequences of a market shift can be serious.
Remember 2022, when Germany sold $9 billion worth of Bitcoin, causing prices to drop from $70,000 to $50,000?
If MSTR follows suit, the impact on Bitcoin’s price could be just as catastrophic – something worth considering.
