Bitcoin to touch $ 450,000 in liquidity -driven supercycle

At Sui Basecamp, Macro-investor and co-founder of Real Vision Raoul Pal delivered a characteristic radical address that framed the current cryptomarkt environment as the beginning of what he called a “liquidity-controlled supercycle” with Bitcoin that possibly achieved $ 450,000 before the end of it. Right from more than three decades of macro -economic research, PAL sketched His thesis by the lens of what he calls the ‘Everything Code’, a framework that focuses on global liquidity, debt cycles and currency debasia as the core forces that form the asset prizes in all markets.

Why is $ 450,000 Bitcoin possible?

“Bitcoin’s annual change rate is powered by financial circumstances with a delay of three months,” said Pal, pointing to the remarkably consistent correlation between the total global liquidity and the price action of large assets. “The correlation between Bitcoin and the global liquidity is 90%, and with the Nasdaq it is 95%. It is difficult to refute that this is not what happens.” According to PAL, this correlation is not incidental it is structurally connected to how the modern macro system works, especially in a world characterized by chronic debts overhang and systematic liquidity injections.

PAL emphasized that most people misunderstand the true driver of Crypto -Cycli. “Everyone talks about the Halving, but this is about the debt refi cycle. Every four years the global debts roll over and central banks are forced to pump liquidity to prevent systemic collapse.” He added that the average duration of the global debt is four years, concentrated in the three to five-year sector, which naturally produces cyclical liquidity waves that coincide with market trees in Crypto.

The mechanism, argued Pal, is a worldwide financial Shell game: “Scary assets continue to rise in price – real estate, shares, art, gold. Young people cannot afford. What actually happens is a worldwide load of 8% per year that you do not understand. Add another 3% worldwide inflation.” In this context, Bitcoin – with its fixed delivery and a decentralized nature – becomes a rational escape valve for capital according to PAL.

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In particular, you referred to Bitcoin as the best performing active in the entire financial history, with reference to a return of 27.5 million percent since 2012 and an average annual return of 130%, despite massive drawings. “Nothing has ever come close,” he said, before he compares the performance with those of Ethereum (113%) and Solana (142%), with the reservation that the data of Solana includes a shorter time frame.

Although some of his explanations seem hyperbolic, she supported them with a detailed macro analysis and proven indicators. He called on his use of Demark -indicators -a technical analysis -tool -that marks significant turning points in earlier cycles and now suggests a breakout for Bitcoin.

According to its models, if the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) production index reach a level of 57, Bitcoin can be reasonably priced at $ 450,000. “Is it exactly? No. But all the people who say it goes to $ 150k or $ 250k are probably signed from the last cycle,” argued Pal, and emphasized the importance of future -oriented data.

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He also rejected the current Bearish sentiment as misleading and backwards: “People today create stories to explain the liquidity conditions of three months ago,” he said, criticizing popular economic commentary on platforms such as X. to Pal, the market has already priced in recent economic weaknesses in the start of the following economics and the slow economy and the slow economy and the following is the following. Liquidity phase. “Bitcoin has already priced it up to 47.4 on the business cycle indicator,” he said, referring to data that had just been released the day before. “But the financial circumstances lead by nine months and they run.”

When will BTC Piek go?

The wider position of PAL is that we are now entering ‘the banana zone’, his term for the high speed of the crypto cycle where the prices go up sharply. “Every cycle looks the same. Breakout, re -testing, banana zone. We have banana one, the corrective zone, banana two. What is the next step is banana three.” He believes that the current set -up is unusually strong because of a confluence of factors: synchronized global liquidity expansion, a weakening dollar, central banks that start to alleviate and retail plus institutional under interest to risk provisions.

Terwijl hij zijn toespraak sloot, versterkte PAL zijn stelling met urgentie, maar voorzichtigheid: “We hebben de centrale banken die valuta hebben afgestuwd, waardoor we een gigantische inwind hebben. Ze willen niet dat het systeem breken. Elke keer dat er iets gebeurt, injecteren ze meer liquiditeit. Ze geven je gratis geld. En om dat geld te nemen en om dat geld te nemen en om dat geld te nemen en om dat geld te nemen en om dat geld te nemen, heb you need the volatility. ” He warned against exaggerated, leverage or panic in panic during inevitable corrections. “Not f *** this,” he said, referring to his own mistakes from the past during the Bull Run 2017. “Hold your tokens. Do not be careful. Do not make sure FOMO. Follow the liquidity.”

PAL expects that this cycle will potentially extend to Q1 or Q2 of 2026, especially if the political dynamics around a possible re -election of Trump will push the liquidity cycle even further. Whether Bitcoin eventually reaches $ 450,000 is still to be seen, but the position of PAL is clear: the macro -tailwinds are aligned, the data support it, and this can be – as he says it – “the biggest macro chance of always.”

At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 94.191.

Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com