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According to a recent cryptoquant Quicktake post from employee Carmelo Aleman, Bitcoin (BTC) is “still far from a real supply shock”. The analyst mentioned various statistics on the chain to claim that despite the decreasing exchange reserves, it is unlikely that the leading cryptocurrency will be confronted in the short term real scarcity.
Bitcoin delivery shock? Not yet
Since April 21, BTC has been acting within a tight reach between $ 91,500 and $ 95,800 and offers few signals about the next directional movement. Although some analysts have repeatedly emphasized a potential supply shock that could generate the price of Bitcoin much higher, Aleman’s analysis offers a more cautious prospect.
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According to Aleman, BTC reserves on centralized fairs (CEXS) have fallen steadily in the past year. In particular, the reserves of 2,942,077 BTC fell on 11 November to 2,490,318 BTC as of 28 April – which marked a decrease of 15.35% in just five months.
In the same period, the realized capitalization of Bitcoin – a metric that calculates the total value of BTC on the basis of the price at which each currency that was last moved – has risen from $ 669.32 billion to $ 883.03 billion. This reflects an increase in the actual capital that has been invested in the Bitcoin network, rather than just market speculation.
Aleman explains that as BTC becomes ‘more expensive’, a purchase of around 500,000 BTC at current prices may increase the price of the cryptocurrency to $ 130,000 – $ 140,000. However, he warns that such a scenario would probably cause a considerable sales pressure from miners. He adds:
This behavior can prevent the decline in exchange reserves, because miners have the tendency to sell more as the price rises. So even if reserves continue to fall, a price increase would probably encourage sufficient sales to partially compensate for that decrease.
The analyst concludes that a real supply shock in this market cycle is unlikely, unless Bitcoin sees a huge influx of capital – enough to push his realized capitalization up to three or four times his current level.
Technically pointing to BTC Breakout
Despite the low probability of a stock -driven rally, everything is not lost for the leading digital active. Various technical indicators indicate an approaching bullish Rally for the cryptocurrency.
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Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength -index (RSI) in particular broke A long -term downward trendline, which indicates a potential momentum shift. This development could help BTC in the coming weeks to reclaim the $ 100,000 marking.
Moreover, recent data on chains show that holders are of short -term abundantly From the sale of their BTC – even while they are in red – which can indicate to the growing trust of investors and a potential bullish reversal. At the time of the press, BTC acts at $ 94,374, a decrease of 0.4% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image made with Unsplash, graphs of cryptoquant and tradingview.com