- Bitcoin’s volume rose above $50 billion one day after its approval, indicating increasing interest in trading the coin.
- Most predictions were in the six-figure range, indicating that BTC is ready for a new ATH.
- Technical indicators showed that BTC could reach $64,307 within a few months, while on-chain metrics remain bullish.
Bitcoins [BTC] The price touched $47,467 as January 10, 2024 became a historic day for the cryptocurrency, thanks to the US SEC’s approval of all 11 spot ETFs.
As you probably know, there was a lot of hype that led to the final solution. Before the decision, many analysts believed that the outcome would make or break BTC.
Cathie Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, predicted that the price of 1 BTC could exceed $1 million by 2030.
In her dissertation, she stated that institutional adoption of Bitcoin would be the main driver. But Wood’s seemingly logical opinion was the main reason why many market participants looked forward to the approval.
Bitcoin is no longer remote
Simply put, the spot ETFs would provide investors with exposure to Bitcoin. But in this case, the players don’t necessarily need to own BTC.
Large institutions are therefore not the only ones that can benefit from the exposure. On the contrary, investors who do not want to interact directly with crypto can also participate.
This potential to see an exponential rise in Bitcoin adoption is why market participants believe the BTC price would reach a new All-Time High (ATH).
Notably, Bitcoin’s previous ATH in 2021 was $69,000. This sentiment prompted AMBCrypto to speak to some experts about its price prediction.
The first person we had this conversation with was Ryan Grace. Grace is the head of tastycrypto, a DeFi wallet for on-chain operations.
According to him, the spot Bitcoin ETF would help cash flows in the long term. About the price he said:
“Assuming an ETF makes it easier for RIAs to gain crypto exposure for their clients, there is approximately $100 trillion managed by RIAs in the US alone. Assuming 1% is allocated to bitcoin, this could have an outsized impact on the price.”
Furthermore, AMBCrypto checked for Bitcoins volume since the announcement. At the time of writing, volume had risen to $52.3 billion – a mark that had been bypassed since the start of the new year.
The increase in volume was proof that interest in BTC has increased. It was also proof of the buying and selling of the coin.
Source: Santiment
However, there is a good chance that volume will move higher when the ETFs start trading officially. Should volume and price continue to rise, Bitcoin could get close to $50,000.
“Delay is not a denial”
For many, the spot Bitcoin ETF is 10 years too late. This was because the first application was in 2013. During this time, the Winklevoss brothers asked to launch the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Unfortunately, it fell on deaf ears.
The latest development ushered in praise for Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. For example, Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, praised the brothers for their early work.
congratulations @tyler @cameron It’s been a long ride, just over a decade, since your first ETF application, but finally the ETFs have been approved. I originally assumed a few years. thanks for the perseverance. also good to see @Twin in the mix as custodian of @vaneck_us spot ETF.
— Adam Back (@adam3us) January 11, 2024
However, the launch was not without controversy. On January 9, AMBCrypto reported how the SEC’s
Meanwhile, recent revelations revealed that Gensler voted in favor of the approval. In his statement, he noted that the Grayscale victory at the SEC played a role in his decision, despite not being a supporter of the crypto industry.
A new ATH is inevitable, analysts agree
Furthermore, AMBCrypto’s numerous conversations showed that others were more optimistic about the Bitcoin price. One of them was the founder of Bitcoin University, Evander Smart. According to Smart, BTC has incredible potential, both in the short and long term.
When asked about his price prediction, Smart said:
“I expect a new all-time high by the end of the first quarter, and a $200,000 rate is likely by the end of the year. Bitcoin grew by more than 150% in 2023 without the help of Wall Street. A little more than double that, considering their deep pockets, is very realistic. The legendary ‘Bitcoin Bull Market’ started last year. With this step, the Bitcoin Supercycle is just around the corner.”
Another person who shared a similar view was Mason Miller, the president of AI and analytics company AMP ALGOS. Our conversation revealed that Miller was convinced that BTC would soon reach $50,000.
But unlike Smart, Miller noted that a new ATH would take place in the second quarter of 2024. He based his prediction on the fact that Bitcoin’s halving was scheduled for April. He noticed,
“As the Bitcoin market charts its course, I believe Bitcoin’s trajectory towards the $50,000 support zone is inevitable, paving the way for new all-time highs. Bitcoin’s upcoming halving in March is poised to be a pivotal moment, allowing us to expect record-breaking BTC performance by the end of Q2 2024.”
Alone for the time being?
A look at the daily BTC/USD chart showed that these opinions could be valid. This was due to the positions of the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). At the time of writing, the 20 EMA (blue) had crossed the 50 EMA (yellow).
In the short term, this is considered a bullish trend for the coin.
It was a similar case with the 50 EMAA and 200 EMA (purple), which had formed a golden cross. If this trend continues, BTC could be on its way to a new ATH within a few months.
Another indicator we reviewed was the Awesome Oscillator (AO). At the time of writing, the AO was 2254.36, indicating increasing upside momentum.
Should the AO remain in the positive territory, BTC could reclaim $47,000 and likely move higher in the coming days.
Source: TradingView
Additionally, the RSI and Aroon indicators showed signs that buyers were outnumbering those who liquidated their Bitcoin. While the RSI was 61.58, the Aroon Up (orange) scored higher than the Aroon Down (blue).
Indications on the 4-hour chart also matched the signs from the daily time frame. But this time we looked at the Auto Fibonacci extension.
Eyes at $52,900 and $64,307
The chart below shows that the Fib level of 0.618 is at $48,146, indicating that BTC could reach this level soon. The 0.618 level could also act as support for the coin once it reaches the aforementioned price.
Moreover, the Fib extension also showed that Bitcoin’s bullish potential was solid. This was due to the price at which the 4,236 extension was positioned.
At the time of writing, the 4,236 extension was $64,307. So, in the medium to long term, BTC could get very close to its previous ATH.
This potential was also supported by the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D). At the time of writing, the A/D had risen to 3.38 million, indicating that buying pressure was greater than distribution.
Source: TradingView
Predictions from analysts at X also suggest that Bitcoin’s price was due for a rise. For example, analyst Ali Martinez said BTC could rise to $52,900 in the near term.
Just a few hours before the expected decision on the spot #Bitcoin ETFs, the TD Sequential indicator shows a buy signal on the $BTC 4-hour chart!
This timely bullish sign, coupled with increased buying pressure, could provide momentum #BTC towards $48,100 and then possibly expanding to… pic.twitter.com/aVFD2WzKui
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 10, 2024
Some argue that there is no new ATH yet
However, AMBCrypto received a contrary opinion from one of the experts we spoke to. This time it was in conversation with June Jia, the owner of Canny Trading and a quantitative researcher at GF Securities.
According to Jia, the price of Bitcoin would increase significantly in the long term. He noted that the potential increase in adoption would see it surpass the gold ETF launch. But for 2024, Jia explained that.
“However, I think Bitcoin prices still won’t reach a new all-time high in 2024. Since 2020, Bitcoin’s price has maintained a high correlation with stock indices, especially the Nasdaq index. In the current high interest rate environment, the economy is becoming more unpredictable and vulnerable, and high interest rates have a significant suppressive effect on risk assets such as the stock market and Bitcoin.”
In terms of the Pi Cycle Top, the analysis of AMBCrypto showed that BTC was not overheated. The Pi Cycle Top shows the positions of the 111-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 350-day SMA. When the shorter EMA reaches the larger EMA, the market is close to the top.
In this case, the BTC price would undergo a correction. But at the time of writing, the 111-day SMA was below the 350 SMA. So there is a chance that the price will rise as indicated by the various predictions above.
Source: Glassnode
Is your portfolio green? Check the BTC profit calculator
Like Jia, Truflation CEO Stefan Rust agreed that BTC’s market cap would soon rival that of gold. He said,
“Right now, Bitcoin’s total market cap is about $912 billion, but we could see it competing with gold, which is almost a $14 trillion market. That’s 15x from here, so we still have a long way to go and only 21 million coins to go.”
Regarding his price prediction, Rust believed that Bitcoin would reach $150,000 due to demand and the influx of new investors. He also said this could happen within a short period of time and like Miller, he pointed to the upcoming Bitcoin halving as a catalyst.
